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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 17th, 2025

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The inflation data report released last week showed a surprising result—it was cooler than expected across the board. This has led to a much more positive outlook, even in light of recent events regarding the Trump administration. While consumer sentiment reports from the University of Michigan still showed more dissatisfaction than expected, they were accompanied by largely positive data across various releases. There are strong expectations that there will be no interest rate increases, with some potential for rate cuts this year.

Consumer Price Index

The consumer price index increased a mild 0.2% last month, the government said, breaking a string of elevated inflation readings since November. The rate of inflation in the past 12 months fell to 2.8% from 3.0% in January. It had slowed to as low as 2.4% early last fall before a rebound in inflation toward the end of 2024.

Producer Price Index

The flat reading in the producer-price index — helped by lower energy costs — came in under expectations. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% increase. The last time the producer-price index showed so little inflation was in July. The rate of wholesale inflation in the past 12 months, meanwhile, dropped to 3.2% from a one-year high of 3.7% in January.

Consumer Sentiment

The burst of optimism following Donald Trump’s presidential election victory has evaporated. A new survey shows that Americans are worried about rising inflation due to the president’s tariffs and are unsettled by the uncertainty in Washington. According to the University of Michigan, consumer sentiment fell to a 29-month low of 57.6 in March, down from 64.7 in the previous month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 5.80%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.65%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.11% for this week. Current rates at 6.28%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.30%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC is making it’s next rate decision in the upcoming week on Wednesday. There are a number of smaller data releases surrounding the rate decision, but largely all eyes are on the rate decision.

Do VA Entitlements Ever Expire?

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The VA home loan program is one of the most valuable benefits offered to those who have served in the U.S. military, providing veterans and active-duty personnel with access to favorable mortgage terms. One common question is whether these VA entitlements ever expire.

What is VA Home Loan Entitlement?

VA home loan entitlement refers to the amount the Department of Veterans Affairs guarantees to a lender if the borrower defaults on the loan. This guarantee significantly reduces the lender’s risk, which allows veterans to access zero down payments and lower interest rates. The VA doesn’t issue the mortgage itself but backs loans made by private lenders.

VA entitlements come in two forms:

  • Basic Entitlement: In 2023, the basic entitlement is typically around $36,000 or 25% of the loan amount, whichever is less. Veterans can use this entitlement multiple times as long as they meet eligibility requirements.
  • Bonus Entitlement (Second-Tier Entitlement): For higher-cost homes, veterans can access additional entitlement beyond the basic amount. This helps veterans secure larger loans in areas where housing prices exceed the standard limit.

Does VA Entitlement Expire?

The short answer is no. Once a veteran is eligible for the VA home loan program, they keep that entitlement for life. There is no expiration date for using it, making it a long-term benefit that veterans can tap into at any time during their lives.

Restoring Loan Entitlement

Veterans who have used their VA entitlement in the past but have paid off their loans or sold their home can have their entitlement restored. This gives them the flexibility to use a VA loan again, although certain conditions apply depending on the situation. Veterans should consult the VA or a lender to understand the specific process for restoring their entitlement.

What About Foreclosure?

In the event of a foreclosure, veterans may lose their entitlement. However, the VA allows for entitlement restoration under certain conditions. If a veteran repays the VA for any losses or sets up a repayment plan, they can regain their eligibility.

VA entitlements are an incredible financial resource for veterans and active-duty service members, providing flexibility and long-term benefits with no expiration. Whether you’re buying a home for the first time or looking to use your entitlement again, this benefit is there when you need it.

The Difference Between Pending And Contingent Deals

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The real estate market can be a bit confusing, especially when you encounter terms like “pending” and “contingent” deals. Understanding these terms is crucial whether you’re a buyer or a seller, as they can significantly impact the progression of a property transaction.

What Is a Contingent Deal?

A contingent deal occurs when a seller has accepted an offer from a buyer, but the sale is dependent on certain conditions being met. These conditions, or contingencies, are clauses included in the contract that must be satisfied for the sale to proceed. Common contingencies include:

  • Home Inspection Contingency: The buyer can back out or negotiate repairs if significant issues are found during the inspection.
  • Appraisal Contingency: The deal depends on the property being appraised at a value equal to or greater than the agreed-upon purchase price.
  • Financing Contingency: The sale hinges on the buyer securing a mortgage loan.
  • Sale of Buyer’s Property Contingency: The buyer must sell their current home before purchasing the new one.

While the property is marked as “contingent,” it remains on the market, and other buyers can submit backup offers. However, the initial buyer typically has the first right to proceed with the purchase once the contingencies are resolved.

What Is a Pending Deal?

A pending deal indicates that all contingencies have been met, and the transaction is in its final stages before closing. At this point, the property is effectively off the market, and no new offers are being considered. The steps that typically remain in a pending deal include:

  • Finalizing Financing: The buyer completes the mortgage process.
  • Title Search and Insurance: Ensuring the property title is clear of any liens or disputes.
  • Final Walkthrough: The buyer conducts a last check of the property to ensure it’s in the agreed-upon condition.
  • Closing: The final step where all documents are signed, and ownership is officially transferred.

Key Differences

The main difference between pending and contingent deals lies in the stage of the transaction process. Contingent deals have unresolved conditions that could potentially derail the sale while pending deals have cleared these hurdles and are moving toward closing.

Understanding these terms helps buyers and sellers manage their expectations and strategize accordingly. For buyers, knowing the status can influence the timing and approach to making an offer. For sellers, it’s essential to keep the transaction moving smoothly to transition from contingent to pending status successfully.

Why It Matters

In a competitive real estate market, knowing whether a property is contingent or pending can help buyers decide where to focus their efforts. For sellers, understanding these terms ensures you’re better prepared for each stage of the sale and can address potential issues proactively.

Navigating the real estate landscape involves many such nuances, and being well-informed can make the process smoother and more successful for all parties involved.

Homebuyer’s Guide to Pre-Paid Costs

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Buying a home is an exciting adventure, but it’s crucial to understand all the financial aspects involved to make the process smoother. Beyond your down payment and closing costs, there are several pre-paid costs that you’ll need to address at closing. These pre-paid costs are essential to consider as you plan your home purchase. Here’s a comprehensive guide to help you understand these costs and prepare effectively.

What Are Pre-Paid Costs?

Pre-paid costs are expenses you’ll need to pay upfront at closing, in addition to your down payment and closing costs. These costs are designed to cover certain future expenses related to homeownership and ensure that these obligations are met as you transition into your new home. Although the exact amounts can vary based on your location and loan type, common pre-paid costs include homeowners insurance, property taxes, mortgage interest, and an initial escrow deposit. If your new home is part of a community with a homeowner association (HOA), you may also need to account for HOA dues.

Common Types of Pre-Paid Costs

  1. Initial Escrow Deposit:
    • What It Is: This is an upfront deposit into your mortgage escrow account. An escrow account helps manage your property taxes and homeowners insurance by spreading these expenses over monthly payments rather than having to pay a lump sum annually.
    • Why It Matters: It ensures that your taxes and insurance are paid on time, protecting both you and your lender. Typically, you’ll need to deposit a few months’ worth of property taxes and insurance premiums at closing.
  2. Homeowners Insurance:
    • What It Is: Homeowners insurance protects your property against losses from events such as fire, theft, or natural disasters.
    • Why It Matters: Lenders require proof of insurance to protect their investment. You’ll need to pre-pay the first six to twelve months of premiums at closing, plus additional months in advance if you have an escrow account.
  3. Pre-Paid Interest:
    • What It Is: This is interest paid upfront that covers the period from the date of closing to the end of the month before your first mortgage payment is due.
    • Why It Matters: It ensures that the lender is compensated for the time between closing and your first regular payment. The amount will depend on your loan amount, interest rate, and the number of days until your first payment.
  4. Real Estate Property Taxes:
    • What It Is: These are taxes levied by local governments to fund public services such as schools and infrastructure.
    • Why It Matters: As a new homeowner, you’ll be responsible for paying property taxes from the date of purchase onward. If the seller has already paid property taxes for the year, you might need to reimburse them for the portion of the year you’ll own the home.
  5. HOA Dues:
    • What It Is: If your new home is in a community with a homeowners association, you may need to pay HOA fees. These fees cover the maintenance of common areas and other community services.
    • Why It Matters: HOA fees are often collected in advance, so you might need to pay a prorated amount at closing based on the number of days remaining in the month.

How to Calculate Pre-Paid Costs

Estimating your pre-paid costs is crucial for accurate budgeting. Here’s a quick guide to help you:

  1. Initial Escrow Deposit: Typically, this includes three months of homeowners insurance and three months of property taxes. Check with your lender or mortgage servicer for exact requirements based on your loan type and location.
  2. Homeowners Insurance: Obtain quotes from several insurance providers to get an accurate estimate. Your lender will provide an estimate, but it’s wise to compare and confirm.
  3. Pre-Paid Interest: To calculate, divide your annual mortgage rate by 365 to get the daily interest amount. Multiply this by your loan amount to get the daily cost, then multiply by the number of days between closing and your first payment.
  4. Property Taxes: Multiply the local property tax rate by your home’s purchase price to estimate annual taxes. Your lender or real estate agent can also help with this calculation.
  5. HOA Fees: Contact the HOA to get information on monthly or annual dues. Calculate the prorated amount based on the number of days in the month you’ll own the home.

Who Pays Pre-Paid Costs?

As the homebuyer, you are responsible for all pre-paid costs. These expenses will be collected at closing by a third party, such as your title company or escrow agent, and deposited into your escrow account if applicable.

Need More Help?

Navigating pre-paid costs can be complex but understanding them is key to a smooth closing process. If you have questions or need assistance with estimating your home loan’s pre-paid costs, don’t hesitate to give us a call!

By preparing for these pre-paid costs, you’ll be better equipped to manage your homebuying budget and enjoy the journey to homeownership with confidence

Millennials and the Pursuit of Homeownership

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With rapid technological advancements and shifting societal norms, millennials find themselves facing a unique set of challenges and opportunities when it comes to securing a mortgage. The journey toward homeownership for this generation is a multifaceted one, influenced by factors ranging from soaring student loan debt to evolving housing preferences.

The Student Loan Conundrum: One of the primary obstacles that millennials face when considering homeownership is the burden of student loan debt. With the rising cost of education, many find themselves struggling with substantial loan balances, which can impact their ability to qualify for a mortgage. Lenders typically assess debt-to-income ratios and high levels of student loan debt can tip the scales unfavorably. However, there are programs and strategies available to help manage this challenge, such as income-driven repayment plans and loan forgiveness options.

Changing Housing Preferences: Millennials are rewriting the script when it comes to what they desire in a home. Unlike previous generations, many millennials prioritize experiences over possessions and seek homes that align with their values and lifestyles. The demand for urban living, sustainable features, and smart home technology is on the rise. As a result, the real estate market is adapting to accommodate these shifting preferences, offering diverse options that cater to the unique tastes of millennial homebuyers.

Rising Housing Costs: The dream of homeownership is further complicated by the increasing cost of housing in many regions. Inflated real estate prices, coupled with the financial aftermath of the 2008 recession, have made it challenging for millennials to save for a down payment. Creative solutions, such as shared equity arrangements and government assistance programs, are emerging to address this issue and provide a helping hand to aspiring millennial homeowners.

The Gig Economy and Employment Trends: The gig economy, characterized by freelance work and short-term contracts, is a defining feature of the millennial workforce. While providing flexibility, it can also introduce uncertainty when it comes to mortgage eligibility. Traditional income verification methods may not capture the varied income streams of gig workers, making it essential for lenders to adapt their approaches. Likewise, millennials must be proactive in demonstrating their financial stability and reliability to lenders.

Technology as an Enabler: On the flip side, millennials are uniquely positioned to leverage technology to their advantage in the home buying process. From online mortgage comparison tools to virtual home tours, technology streamlines the journey to homeownership. Additionally, fintech innovations are emerging to address specific millennial challenges, such as crowdfunding platforms for down payments and digital mortgage application processes.

As millennials embark on the path to homeownership, they encounter a landscape shaped by a confluence of economic, social, and technological forces. While challenges like student loan debt and changing housing preferences loom large, opportunities abound through creative financing solutions, evolving real estate options, and the power of technology. Navigating the mortgage maze requires adaptability, financial literacy, and a proactive approach. By understanding and addressing these challenges head-on, millennials can turn the dream of homeownership into a tangible reality.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 10th, 2025

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While the data releases were plentiful, many are made less significant in consideration of the current disruption with the administration and the oncoming inflation data reports with the CPI and PPI arriving next week. The largest and most noteworthy report this time is the Job Report numbers, which will help give a clearer idea on the state of the job market. With the mass federal layoffs, there is much uncertainty, but the labor market is still holding up in light of things. The most pressing data to be released is the predictions for GDP, which has shown to have shown a deflationary value. As long as the inflation data remains consistent then there is little chance the Federal Reserve will consider increasing the interest rates once again. The silver lining in all the reports is the Manufacturing PMI data is noting that the manufacturing sector is still showing strong growth.

Job Reports

The U.S. added a decent 151,000 new jobs in February, but the labor market could soften up in the months ahead as the effects of tariffs, federal spending cuts and mass layoffs of government workers percolate through the economy.

Manufacturing PMI

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index recorded 52.7 in February, up from 51.2 in January. It was the second successive month that the index has pointed to an improvement in the health of the manufacturing sector, with the rate of growth the best since June 2022. Growth was underpinned by noticeable upturns in both production and new orders. There was some evidence that sector expansion was partially driven by advanced purchases ahead of likely price increases and possible supply disruption related to further tariff impositions in the coming months.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15% with the current rate at 5.79%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.13% with the current rate at 6.63%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.17%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.20%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 242,000.

What’s Ahead

The major inflationary reports ahead this week with both Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index are expected to come in line with the previous quarters.