Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment
Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. They are also still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon. The first reading of the consumer sentiment survey in October was basically flat at 55.0, the University of Michigan said Friday. The index has been hovering at levels that are typically experienced during recessions.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.53%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI — key inflation reports — are tentatively scheduled to be released.

The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.

Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.

Manufacturing PMI
The latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty also dampened firms’ assessment of the business outlook, but expectations of manufacturing production reshoring and hopes of better demand in the year ahead meant sentiment remained positive overall.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence fell sharply in September on growing worries about the labor market. The consumer-confidence index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level since April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rate at 5.55%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.34%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
The unemployment data has been delayed, but expected claims are 222,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The key releases next week will include major inflation reports — the CPI and PPI — along with the delayed Unemployment Data report. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be a notable release.

The PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, has been on the rise but remains within expectations.

Although there was heavy speculation that this year’s inflation would spike due to impactful tariff policies, it has largely stayed within forecasts—enough for the Federal Reserve to introduce a 25 basis point rate cut.

The PCE Index data has shown this trend to continue. This is followed up closely by the Consumer Sentiment report which has been unstable due to significant inflation concerns, but has finally tempered itself after three straight months of consumer sentiment falling to yearly lows.

Finally, Consumer Spending reports show that spending remains strong, signaling that the U.S. economy is healthy and recovering from earlier tariff-related policies. Even so, there is ongoing speculation that the Federal Reserve has penciled in two additional rate cuts before the end of the year.

PCE Index
The PCE index rose 0.3% in August, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. The Fed gives more weight to the so-called core price index that omits food and gas. It rose a somewhat slower 0.2% and matched the Wall Street forecast.

Consumer Personal Spending
High tariffs, lingering inflation, and more trouble finding a job apparently haven’t thrown consumers into a funk. Americans increased spending again in August to help keep the U.S. economy chugging. Personal spending rose 0.6% last month for the third month in a row, the government said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.49%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.09%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.10%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 235,000. The prior week landed at 232,000.

What’s Ahead
A lighter week overall, with the largest releases being the Consumer Credit, Consumer Sentiment, and U.S. Trade Deficit reports. There is also a scheduled FOMC Minutes, which will give a more definitive route on a potential plan for additional rate cuts this year.

It has been a relatively light week following the recent rate changes, as the Federal Reserve has felt the need to drop the current rate by 25 basis points. They have also mentioned the possibility of two additional rate cuts within this year. This follows the recent sharp criticism from the current administration, which condemned the Federal Reserve’s insistence on maintaining existing interest rates.

This development coincides with the Leading Economic Indicators, which have shown that the U.S. economy remains in decline, a trend that began in August. With further rate cuts on the horizon, the broader market reaction has been a positive one.

Consumer Price Index
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points today, the first rate move since last year, as it penciled in two more reductions for this year.

Leading Economic Indicators
US declined by 0.5% in August 2025 to 98.4 (2016=100), after a small 0.1% increase in July (upwardly revised from an originally reported 0.1% decline). The LEI fell by 2.8% over the six months between February and August 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 0.9% contraction over the previous six-month period (August 2024 to February 2025).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 6.26%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 231,000 compared to the expected claims of 240,000. The prior week landed at 264,000.

What’s Ahead
U.S. Employment data is set to land next week, with the S&P Final Manufacturing PMI estimates to round up before the end of the year. 

Both the CPI and PPI came in precisely within expectations. Under the current circumstances, there is now a very high probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a quarter-point rate cut, a view widely shared by industry analysts. There is also a strong possibility of another cut to follow.

Meanwhile, Consumer Sentiment has hit another low in the last 4 months, as many have growing concerns about the state of the job market in addition to inflation continuing to grow. It is unknown how much the rate cuts will impact inflation, but so far the Federal Reserve has managed to maintain a delicate balance.

Consumer Price Index
The cost of living rose again in August at an accelerated pace, but probably not enough to discourage the Federal Reserve from reducing interest rates next week. The latest consumer price index (the main measure of U.S. inflation) could raise questions about how aggressively the Fed cuts rates, however, in the upcoming months. The consumer price index rose 0.4% last month, the government said Thursday. That was one tick above the Wall Street forecast.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index (PPI) dipped 0.1 percent on a month-on-month basis, according to Department of Labor data — when analysts had expected a 0.3-percent increase.

Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to a reading of 55.4 in September, a four-month low. The worsening of sentiment was particularly strong among lower and middle-income respondents.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% for this week, with the current rate at 5.50%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.15%, with the current rate at 6.35%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.00%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 263,000 compared to the expected claims of 236,000. The prior week landed at 237,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC Rate Decision will be ahead next week, as well as the usual employment data.

The release of major inflation data has once again arrived with the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, offering insight into the current state of the economy. Based on recent statements from the Federal Reserve, there is considerable speculation that rate cuts may occur regardless of the trajectory of inflation.

More recent data releases have shown that the economy is still on shaky ground after changes to tariff policies, leading things to be more unstable than anticipated. Trade deficits have also shown to have bounced back significantly from the prior months, while the manufacturing side are still showing impacts from the tariffs. Jobless Claims have also hit the highest levels since June, giving some concern to the broader labor market.

Trade Deficit
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.3 billion in July, up $19.2 billion from $59.1 billion in June, revised.

Manufacturing PMI
The trade wars are slowly dying down. The damage to American manufacturers is not. Industrial production fell in August for the sixth month in a row, according to an index compiled by the Institute for Supply Management. The ISM surveys executives every month about how their businesses are doing.

Job Reports
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in the seven days ended Aug. 30 rose by 8,000 to 237,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It is the highest level since late June. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had estimated new claims would rise by 2,000 to 231,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week, with the current rate at 5.60%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with the current rate at 6.50%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.11% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 237,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 229,000.

What’s Ahead
Upcoming reports include the CPI and PPI inflation data, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report, which will close out the week.