The FOMC meeting that was held the previous week to discuss upcoming decisions addressed the future of the economic landscape.

During his remarks, Jerome Powell stated that inflation will rise in the future, with consumers bearing the burden. Many have speculated that this means reductions in current rates are unlikely to happen anytime soon, in an attempt to keep inflation under control.

Another notable release was the leading economic indicators, which once again showed contraction—signaling the potential for further economic decline.

Leading Economic Indicators
The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for the US inched down by 0.1% in July 2025 to 98.7 (2016=100), after declining by 0.3% in June. The LEI fell by 2.7% over the six months between January and July 2025, a faster rate of decline than its –1.0% contraction over the previous six-month period (July 2024 to January 2025).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.69%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw no change from last week, with the current rate at 6.58%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.11%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% this week. Current rates at 6.13%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 235,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead
PCI Index inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is set for next week. Other notable releases will be the GDP Estimates for the second half of the year, Personal Income & Spending, Consumer Sentiment, and Retail Inventories.

This marks the first release of CPI and PPI data since the recent reduction in data collection that is used to determine the current inflation. The Producer Price Index has shown quite clearly that there has been the biggest whole price jump in the last 3 years, showing that the administration’s policies on tariffs are having an impact. The CPI has shown a similar increase in inflation, but still within expectations in lieu of the current tariff policies. 

There is still data to be collected, with some speculation that the Federal Reserve may implement rate cuts in the future. Consumer sentiment has also shown increased concern regarding inflation and unemployment statistics, as trends have worsened following the tariff changes, leading to a three-month low in consumer sentiment.

Consumer Price Index
A key measure of consumer prices posted the biggest increase in July in six months, suggesting inflation is showing upward pressure from tariffs but maybe not enough to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates soon. The so-called core rate of the consumer price index rose 0.3% in July to mark the biggest increase since the first month of the year. The core rate omits food and energy and is a better predictor of future inflation.

Producer Price Index
The cost of wholesale goods and services—where rising inflation tends to show up first—posted the biggest increase in July in three years, possibly heralding a sizable acceleration in price hikes tied to U.S. tariffs. The producer-price index jumped 0.9% last month after no change in June, the government said Thursday. The surge was a big surprise to Wall Street.

Consumer Sentiment
Fresh worries about inflation soured Americans on the economy in early August, underscoring lingering anxiety about the highest U.S. tariffs in decades and a further rise in unemployment. The first reading of the consumer-sentiment survey in August dropped to a three-month low of 57.2 from 61.8 in July, the University of Michigan said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% with the current rate at 5.71%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05% with the current rate at 6.58%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% this week. Current rates at 6.18%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% this week. Current rates at 6.19%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 224,000 compared to the expected claims of 229,000. The prior week landed at 226,000.

What’s Ahead
FOMC Minutes will give an indication where the Federal Reserve decides to still hold their “wait-and-see” approach. This will be followed by the PMI Manufacturing and Services data, relevant to the tariff changes.

The major report to look out for was the Trade Balance, which has decreased more than expected, suggesting that the current administration’s policies are having an impact. However, the long-term impact on the economy as a whole remain to be seen. This was followed closely by consumer credit, which came in far lower than expected, though many are predicting that consumer credit usage will grow over time. While the labor market remains constrained, the consumer market has remained stable in spite of the uncertainty brought on by the tariff policies.

Trade Balance
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $60.2 billion in June, down $11.5 billion from $71.7 billion in May, revised.

Consumer Credit
Revolving credit, mainly credit cards, declined for the second straight month in June, the Federal Reserve said. Revolving credit fell at a 1% rate in June after a 3.5% drop in the prior month. Declines in credit-card borrowing are rare: The last time revolving credit fell for two straight months was during the COVID pandemic in 2020.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.10% with the current rate at 5.75%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09% with the current rate at 6.63%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% this week. Current rates at 6.15%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% this week. Current rates at 6.16%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 226,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 219,000.

What’s Ahead
A heavy week with the next round of inflation data being released with both the CPI and PPI reports. It should be noted that this CPI will feature less recorded data, relying more on estimations. In addition, Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and Treasury Budget should prove to be impactful data releases.

There were several notable releases this last week, with the largest being the PCE Index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The PCE Index may be the more accurate indicator going forward, as data collection for the Consumer Price Index has been recently cut, thereby reducing its reliability. As expected, the inflation numbers have been steadily rising with the PCE Index, indicating that impacts from the tariffs are now filtering into prices for both producers and consumers.

As a follow up, Personal Income & Spending has had a light upturn after the initial panic with the tariffs. Lastly, the job numbers from last week have been unexpectedly weak, showing a slow down of the economy overall due to many factors.

PCE Index
A key measure of inflation posted the biggest increase in four months in June as the delayed effects of higher U.S. tariffs began to filter through the economy, raising questions about whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. The PCE index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% last month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday. It was the biggest increase since February.

Personal Spending & Income
Americans spent more money in June after U.S. trade wars began to simmer down, but they were cautious spenders amid all the turmoil caused by the Trump administration’s tariffs. Personal spending increased 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, and partly recovered from a soft patch in May and April.

Employment Reports
The U.S. only added 19,000 jobs in May compared to an initial report of 144,000, and only 14,000 in June after an initial report of 147,000, according to the BLS. Those two paltry totals, plus a July jobs gain of 73,000, means the U.S. added just 106,000 jobs over the past three months.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 5.85%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.17% this week. Current rates at 6.22%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.16% this week. Current rates at 6.24%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 218,000 compared to the expected claims of 222,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week will be a fairly light week, with the most significant releases being the Trade Balance as well as the Services PMI reports.

Very little was released this week due to the major inflation data releases from the previous week. The Leading Economic Index was the most significant—and only—impactful release this week, showing a further decline in overall sentiment about the current economic situation. The majority of the decline was largely driven by expectations for business conditions. The decline was faster than expected, enough to warrant continued monitoring of the Leading Economic Index going forward.

Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the US declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, after no change in May (revised upward from -0.1% originally reported). As a result, the LEI fell by 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a substantially faster rate of decline than the -1.3% contraction over the second half of 2024.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05% with the current rate at 5.87%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.74%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 227,000. The prior week was 221,000.

What’s Ahead
Personal Income & Spending and PCE Prices will lead the way for data releases next week. Followed up by the Nonfarm Payrolls giving a strong indicator of where the economy is headed for the average consumer.

While inflation has slowed down since the pandemic, it is showing a faster-than-expected rise for consumers, as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) has reported a higher than expected 0.3% increase, contrasted to the 0.2% expected increase.

Meanwhile, the PPI (Producer Price Index) has proven to be entirely flat, with the largest takeaway being that signs of tariff-related inflation are — at best — scattered among data reports, leading to many speculating that the impacts have been overestimated.

Given continued inflation for consumers, it is very unlikely the Federal Reserve will make any adjustments to the rate as it adopts a “wait-and-see” approach to the administration’s policies. Another noteworthy data release is retail sales, which has shown to snap back after the concerns about tariffs and widespread price increases have eased.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices in June posted the biggest increase since the beginning of the year and are likely to keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates later this month, but there were only scattered signs of tariff-related inflation. The consumer-price index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Tuesday, and matched Wall Street’s forecast. It was the biggest rise since January.

Producer Price Index
Wholesale prices were unchanged in June and showed only a mild effect from U.S. tariffs, adding to the growing view that trade wars won’t lead to a big surge in inflation. The flat reading in the producer-price index came in below the Wall Street forecast of a 0.2% increase.

Retail Sales
Receipts at retail cash registers rose 0.6% last month, the government said Thursday, based on seasonally adjusted numbers. That was three times the Wall Street estimate.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rates at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.75%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week, with the current rates at 6.40%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 234,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.

What’s Ahead
After inflation reports, there will only be the Leading Indicators report in the schedule for next week.