While many were optimistic about an additional rate cut, the Federal Reserve has decided to maintain current interest rates pending further data. They have previously stated that at least one more rate cut would follow the last one, but their stance now appears to depend on the availability of sufficient supporting data.
Recent Core PPI reports have also been released, and the data conflicted with earlier CPI and non-core PPI reports. The reports showed that inflation for producers along major production pathways has increased more than expected. This is likely to result in a noticeable increase in wholesale prices across the board.
Additionally, despite the policy intentions behind the tariffs, the trade deficit has remained firmly elevated amid recent policy changes. It is unlikely that even more significant tariff adjustments will lead to a narrowing of the trade deficit. Consumer confidence has also declined for another consecutive week, despite the economy continuing to show signs of strength.
Core PPI
The cost of wholesale goods and services rose sharply at the end of last year, underscoring that the battle against inflation is far from over as President Donald Trump names his pick for chair of the Federal Reserve. Producer prices jumped 0.5% in December, an index published by the government showed. The report was delayed by the government shutdown last fall.
Trade Deficit
The trade deficit fell a few months ago to a 16-year low, but it was fool’s gold. The U.S. is still running a trade gap near historically high levels. In November, the deficit almost doubled to $56.8 billion from just $29.2 billion in October.
Consumer Confidence
The stock market keeps hitting record highs, unemployment is low and the economy is growing surprisingly fast, but Americans were in a foul mood as the new year got under way. A long-running survey of consumer confidence fell in January to a 12-year low, dipping below even the worst readings during the pandemic.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with the current rate at 5.49%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01%, with the current rate at 6.10%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.79%
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rates at 5.81%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The prior week landed at 210,000.
What’s Ahead
Unemployment Data, Consumer Credit, and U.S. Hourly Wages are set to release next week, with an additional Consumer Sentiment report by the Univ. of Michigan.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator — the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index — released under delayed conditions, but it was within expectations. Next week will be another Federal Reserve Rate Decision, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates at least one more time. The optimism among the broader market has been showing that multiple sectors that seem unphased by the administrative decisions and current political climate. 
Inflation reports have shown their cards, and they have come in line with expectations. These newer reports rely on less data from sources overall, which is why the PCE Index remains the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator—and that distinction is even more relevant now.
The trade deficit dropped significantly this month, resulting in the smallest gap in the last 16 years. This has been entirely driven by the ongoing gold rush and, to a much less impactful degree, businesses working their way around high tariffs. The unemployment reports, however, have shed another light, showing a steady trend of unemployment rising and reaching a four-year high as of last week.
