With the holiday of the previous week in addition to an extremely light release week, only the Consumer Sentiment report is weighing in on the lending markets. With both the inflation reports showing inflation cooling off, there is still some optimism about where the Federal Reserve will take things. This optimism is only cooled by the uncertainty the new presidency will bring. Many markets have responded in kind, with lending partners showing a trend of increasing rates and other markets preparing for uncertainty. Within the next few months, we will see how the new administration intends to handle monetary policy. This will have a greater impact than the Federal Reserve on the direction things will be headed in the future. Next week will be the first FOMC Rate Decision of the year, with many being optimistic about a potential rate cut with the recent inflation data.

Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan)

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4% from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed, sentiment declines were broad-based and seen across incomes, wealth, and age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about 30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now would avoid future price increases. 

Despite reporting stronger incomes this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.11% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% with the current rate at 6.96%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.54%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for next week, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Index, will be released at the end of the week. Additionally, the Personal Income and Spending report, a key forward indicator of future economic trends, is also set to be released. Finally, the Chicago Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be published.

Recent economic data brought significant relief, with both the CPI and PPI indicating that inflation was running cooler than expected. In the context of the current administration, this was welcome news, helping to ease concerns about potential monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve has very frequently signaled they will follow the data and this time it was a positive result towards reducing rates further this year. The change in administration, however, still remains unknown and there is a lot of unrest across lending partners and markets alike. This was also followed by a better than expected Retail Sales report which has shown 2025 to start off with some economic momentum. Both reports are critical factors in shaping future rate adjustments. Despite this, lending partners have been raising rates in the last few months, driven largely by uncertainty tied to the transition of administrative positions.

Consumer Price Index

The increase in the core rate in the last 12 months dipped to 3.2% from 3.3%. But that still leaves it well above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation. Meanwhile, overall consumer prices showed a sharper 0.4% increase largely because of higher food and energy prices. Those prices are expected to taper off in January.

Producer Price Index

Producer-price index rises just half as much as forecast. The producer-price index, where the seeds of inflation are planted, rose a mild 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. Wall Street had predicted an increase double that size.

Retail Sales

Retail sales grew steadily in December 2024, rounding out a strong holiday shopping season and signaling that the economy entered the new year with solid momentum. According to government data released Thursday, sales at U.S. retailers rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.27%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11% with the current rate at 7.04%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.

What’s Ahead

We should expect the Manufacturing PMI preliminary this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report. Given the bank holiday from Martin Luther King, there is a relatively light release schedule otherwise.

In the first FOMC Minutes of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled strongly that while officials remain vigilant for inflation exceeding their expectations, they have no plans to raise interest rates. Much of the apprehension among speculators is the monetary policy which could keep inflation higher than expected for some time. Meanwhile, unemployment reports indicate that the previous year remained stable, consistently staying below the annual high—a positive sign of a stronger job market.  However, this has been somewhat dampened by the recent reports of the Trade Deficit. Compared to the previous year, the trade gap has nearly doubled, potentially clashing with the policies introduced by the Trump Administration.

Unemployment Report

The Federal Reserve’s sharp half-point reduction in a key U.S. interest rate in September was driven in part by the unemployment rate rising to a post-pandemic high of 4.3% in July, from a cycle low of 3.4% a year and a half earlier. As it turns out, the jobless rate peaked at 4.2% in July. The government wiped away the 4.3% reading after annual revisions that incorporate more accurate information.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit increased by 6%, reaching nearly $80 billion by late 2024. This marks a gap nearly double the size of what it was when Donald Trump first assumed the presidency eight years ago. For over three decades, high trade deficits have been a persistent challenge for U.S. presidents. Economists believe there is little Trump can do to significantly address the issue early in his second term.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.14%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.93%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.12% for this week. Current rates at 6.57%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 201,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead

With the Martin Luther King holiday next week, a very light release schedule is planned. The most significant among them are the Consumer Sentiment report and the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data.

With the holiday season coming to a conclusion, there was little in the way of data releases. Last week, the main reports were the Chicago Business Barometer and the ISM Manufacturing Index, both indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. This comes as we await the upcoming administration change at the White House. The impact of this is relatively minimal, with lending rates continuing their downward trend. Next week we will be expecting the year-over-year for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), wrapping up 2024.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped further to 36.9 in December 2024, compared to November’s 40.2 and missing market forecasts of 42.5.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.13%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 6.91%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.42%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Both the year-over-year reports for the CPI and PPI as well as the first reports of inflation data for 2025 is on the release schedule.

With Christmas concluding the prior week, there were few reports other than Consumer Confidence, which had come in slightly below expectations. This should prove to have little impact, especially in the following week. With the New Year on the horizon, there are no reports other than the Chicago Manufacturing output report for the entire week. Happy Holidays!

Consumer Confidence

A post-election pop in consumer confidence fizzled at the end of the year, owing to worries about the U.S. stock market and a potentially higher cost of living as a result of new tariffs. The index of consumer confidence dropped 8.1 points to a three-month low of 104.7 in December, the privately run Conference Board said Monday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 6.00%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.85%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.46%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Chicago PMI Report will be the only release for next week.

The rate cut by the Federal Reserve was hotly anticipated, and as predicted, they proceeded with the reduction, signaling the possibility of further cuts depending on inflation data. Although markets were generally receptive to the positive news, other government-related issues had dampened the high spirits temporarily. Outside of the rate decision, the PCE Index (the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator) has performed positively by beating the forecast. In addition, the Consumer Sentiment was exactly where it should be as expected.

PCE Index

The PCE index increased a scant 0.1% last month, the government said Friday. That’s the smallest rise in three months and just half as much as economists polled by The Wall Street Journal predicted. The barometer of U.S. inflation favored by the Federal Reserve rose more slowly than expected in November, breaking what appears to be a gradual drift higher in prices that forced the central bank to scale back plans to cut interest rates.

FOMC Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point, the third rate cut since it began to lower borrowing costs in September. The central bank’s latest move leaves its benchmark lending rate at a range of 4.25%-4.5%, a two-year low.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08% with the current rate at 5.92%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.12% with the current rate at 6.72%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.42%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.10% for this week. Current rates at 6.43%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 242,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The prior week landed at 224,000.

What’s Ahead

With an extremely light release schedule ahead of Christmas, the jobs release data will be the only important release.