Last week’s reports were plentiful, but few had a greater impact on the lending and broader markets. The most significant among them were the Nonfarm Payrolls, Consumer Credit, and Consumer Sentiment reports. 

Currently, considerable movement within the government administration is contributing to widespread uncertainty and instability across various markets. Additionally, the recent outbreak of Avian Flu has driven poultry prices sharply higher, further adding to consumer unease. This uncertainty is reflected in the Consumer Sentiment reports, which have seen their most significant decline since July, as inflation concerns intensify.

Meanwhile, Consumer Credit data came in worse than expected, while job reports exceeded expectations. Given these factors, we should anticipate continued uncertainty in the weeks ahead.

Consumer Credit

Total consumer credit rose $40.8 billion in December, after a $5.4 billion decline in the prior month, the Federal Reserve said Friday. In percentage terms, it is the biggest gain since June 2022. Revolving credit (typically credit-card debt) made up most of the increase, rising at a 20.2% annual rate. That follows a 12.1% drop in the prior month.

Consumer Sentiment

Consumer sentiment drops sharply in February as inflation worries soar. Sentiment gauge falls to 67.8, the lowest reading since July. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell to 67.8 in a preliminary February reading, down from 71.1 in the prior month and the lowest reading since July.

Unemployment

Turns out the U.S. labor market really did perk up toward the end of 2024, a fresh government update shows. And that means Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely far off. The number of new jobs created in December was raised to 307,000 from a previous 256,000. And November’s employment increase was lifted to 261,000 from 212,000.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07% with the current rate at 6.05%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06% with the current rate at 6.89%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.41%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead

Next week, the CPI and PPI reports will be released once again. With inflation expectations on the rise, there is even some speculation about a potential rate increase.

The previous week’s reins were held by the Federal Reserve’s Rate Decision and also the preferred inflation indicator, the PCE Index. With the PCE Index coming in well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, it suggests that rate cuts may be postponed much longer this year than initially anticipated.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week features the CPI and PPI inflation data reports, making for a busy schedule. However, this week’s reports are relatively limited in terms of significant market impact. The most notable releases include Unemployment Data and U.S. Wages, both of which will complement the inflation data to provide a broader outlook on the economy’s trajectory. Additionally, the Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit reports may offer insight into consumer conditions amid a changing administration and ongoing inflation. Notably, inflation has had a strong impact on markets such as eggs and livestock poultry, which have reached all-time high prices in the past decade.

PCE Index

The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday, to mark the biggest increase since last April. The increase in inflation in the past year was at a seven-month high of 2.6%, up from 2.4% in the prior month.

FOMC Rate Decision

In a widely anticipated move, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee left unchanged its overnight borrowing rate in a range between 4.25%-4.5%.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% with the current rate at 6.12%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% with the current rate at 6.95%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.46%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 228,000. The prior week landed at 223,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI reports are set to release tomorrow along with Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Credit reports.

With the holiday of the previous week in addition to an extremely light release week, only the Consumer Sentiment report is weighing in on the lending markets. With both the inflation reports showing inflation cooling off, there is still some optimism about where the Federal Reserve will take things. This optimism is only cooled by the uncertainty the new presidency will bring. Many markets have responded in kind, with lending partners showing a trend of increasing rates and other markets preparing for uncertainty. Within the next few months, we will see how the new administration intends to handle monetary policy. This will have a greater impact than the Federal Reserve on the direction things will be headed in the future. Next week will be the first FOMC Rate Decision of the year, with many being optimistic about a potential rate cut with the recent inflation data.

Consumer Sentiment (Univ. of Michigan)

Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in six months, edging down 4% from December. While assessments of personal finances inched up for the fifth consecutive month, all other index components pulled back. Indeed, sentiment declines were broad-based and seen across incomes, wealth, and age groups. Buying conditions for durables softened but remained about 30% better than six months ago amid persistent views that purchasing now would avoid future price increases. 

Despite reporting stronger incomes this month, concerns about unemployment rose; about 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest since the pandemic recession. January’s data closed on Inauguration Day, and consumers of all political leanings will continue to refine their views as Trump’s policies are clarified and implemented.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.11% with the current rate at 6.16%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% with the current rate at 6.96%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.54%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.07% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 223,000 compared to the expected claims of 221,000. The prior week landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead

The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for next week, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Index, will be released at the end of the week. Additionally, the Personal Income and Spending report, a key forward indicator of future economic trends, is also set to be released. Finally, the Chicago Manufacturing PMI data is expected to be published.

Recent economic data brought significant relief, with both the CPI and PPI indicating that inflation was running cooler than expected. In the context of the current administration, this was welcome news, helping to ease concerns about potential monetary policy changes. The Federal Reserve has very frequently signaled they will follow the data and this time it was a positive result towards reducing rates further this year. The change in administration, however, still remains unknown and there is a lot of unrest across lending partners and markets alike. This was also followed by a better than expected Retail Sales report which has shown 2025 to start off with some economic momentum. Both reports are critical factors in shaping future rate adjustments. Despite this, lending partners have been raising rates in the last few months, driven largely by uncertainty tied to the transition of administrative positions.

Consumer Price Index

The increase in the core rate in the last 12 months dipped to 3.2% from 3.3%. But that still leaves it well above the Fed’s goal of 2% inflation. Meanwhile, overall consumer prices showed a sharper 0.4% increase largely because of higher food and energy prices. Those prices are expected to taper off in January.

Producer Price Index

Producer-price index rises just half as much as forecast. The producer-price index, where the seeds of inflation are planted, rose a mild 0.2% last month, the government said Tuesday. Wall Street had predicted an increase double that size.

Retail Sales

Retail sales grew steadily in December 2024, rounding out a strong holiday shopping season and signaling that the economy entered the new year with solid momentum. According to government data released Thursday, sales at U.S. retailers rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.4%, slightly below Wall Street’s expectations.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.27%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11% with the current rate at 7.04%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week. Current rates at 6.47%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.09% for this week. Current rates at 6.48%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 217,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.

What’s Ahead

We should expect the Manufacturing PMI preliminary this week, as well as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report. Given the bank holiday from Martin Luther King, there is a relatively light release schedule otherwise.

In the first FOMC Minutes of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled strongly that while officials remain vigilant for inflation exceeding their expectations, they have no plans to raise interest rates. Much of the apprehension among speculators is the monetary policy which could keep inflation higher than expected for some time. Meanwhile, unemployment reports indicate that the previous year remained stable, consistently staying below the annual high—a positive sign of a stronger job market.  However, this has been somewhat dampened by the recent reports of the Trade Deficit. Compared to the previous year, the trade gap has nearly doubled, potentially clashing with the policies introduced by the Trump Administration.

Unemployment Report

The Federal Reserve’s sharp half-point reduction in a key U.S. interest rate in September was driven in part by the unemployment rate rising to a post-pandemic high of 4.3% in July, from a cycle low of 3.4% a year and a half earlier. As it turns out, the jobless rate peaked at 4.2% in July. The government wiped away the 4.3% reading after annual revisions that incorporate more accurate information.

Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit increased by 6%, reaching nearly $80 billion by late 2024. This marks a gap nearly double the size of what it was when Donald Trump first assumed the presidency eight years ago. For over three decades, high trade deficits have been a persistent challenge for U.S. presidents. Economists believe there is little Trump can do to significantly address the issue early in his second term.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.01% with the current rate at 6.14%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02% with the current rate at 6.93%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13% for this week. Current rates at 6.55%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.12% for this week. Current rates at 6.57%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 201,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead

With the Martin Luther King holiday next week, a very light release schedule is planned. The most significant among them are the Consumer Sentiment report and the U.S. Leading Economic Indicators data.

With the holiday season coming to a conclusion, there was little in the way of data releases. Last week, the main reports were the Chicago Business Barometer and the ISM Manufacturing Index, both indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector. This comes as we await the upcoming administration change at the White House. The impact of this is relatively minimal, with lending rates continuing their downward trend. Next week we will be expecting the year-over-year for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), wrapping up 2024.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped further to 36.9 in December 2024, compared to November’s 40.2 and missing market forecasts of 42.5.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13% with the current rate at 6.13%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% with the current rate at 6.91%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.42%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.45%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The prior week landed at 220,000.

What’s Ahead

Both the year-over-year reports for the CPI and PPI as well as the first reports of inflation data for 2025 is on the release schedule.