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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 22, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 22, 2022

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets, reports on sales of previously owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Rising Materials Costs, Supply Chain Problems Weigh on Builders

The National Association of Home Builders’ February housing market index reading was 82 and one point lower than in January. This was the second consecutive month that builder confidence dropped by one point. Homebuilder confidence in housing market conditions remained relatively high as any index reading over 50 indicates that most builders are confident about market conditions.

Short supplies of available homes and high demand combined to hold builder confidence steady, but growing concerns over rising materials costs, delivery delays, and labor shortages put downward pressure on builder confidence. NAHB chair Jerry Konter wrote, “Many builders are waiting months to receive cabinets, garage doors, countertops, and appliances. These delivery delays are raising construction costs and pricing prospective buyers out of the market.” Rising mortgage rates coupled with rising home prices were regarded by homebuilders as threats to affordability for moderate-income and first-time home buyers. 

Building Permits Increase as Housing Starts Decline

The Commerce Department reported that building permits issued exceeded expectations and the prior month’s reading. 1.90 million building permits were issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in January as compared to the expected reading of 1.75 million permits issued and December’s reading of 1.89 million permits issued.

January housing starts decreased to 1.64 million starts on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis from December’s reading of 1.71 million starts and the expected reading of 1.69 million housing starts. Economists expect a slowdown in home building as shortages of available homes, rising home prices, and mortgage rates continue to impact affordability.

January sales of previously-owned homes rose to 6.50 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis from December’s reading of 6.09 million sales. Analysts predicted a reading of 6.10 million sales.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 23 basis points to 3.92 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.15 percent and were 22 basis points higher. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by 18 basis points to 2.98 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose to 248,000 claims filed; analysts expected 218,000 new claims to be filed based on 225,000 initial jobless claims filed in the prior week. 1.59 million ongoing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.62 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index, data on new home sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 14, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 14, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and the University of Michigan’s preliminary February reporting on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Rises as Fed Considers Raising Key Rate

The government’s Consumer Price Index for January reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.60 percent as compared to an expected increase of 0.40 percent which was based on December’s month-to-month increase of 0.50 percent.  Year-over-year inflation rose to a rate of 7.50 percent, which was the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, also rose 0.60 percent in January from December’s reading of 5.50 percent.

Analysts said that the Federal Reserve will likely raise its key federal funds rate range to help slow inflation, but drastic dips in the inflation rate aren’t expected. While the Fed predicted inflation to ease in a statement made last December, inflation has only increased. The Fed’s strategy of raising interest rates would ease high consumer demand and help slow rapidly rising prices for housing, goods, and services.

Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 14 basis points to 3.69 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 16 basis points to 2.93 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 2.80 percent and nine basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for  5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

223,000 new jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 239,000 first-time claims filed. No information for continuing jobless claims was released last week.

The University of Michigan reported a preliminary index reading of 61.7 for January’s Consumer Sentiment Index. This was the lowest consumer sentiment reading in ten years and was attributed to consumer concerns over rising inflation.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions, Commerce Department readings on building permits issued, and housing starts. Data on sales of pre-owned homes will be released along with weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 7, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 7, 2022

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and labor-related reports on jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Residential Con

The Commerce Department reported overall construction spending rose by 1.30 percent in January, which was the largest increase since April of last year. Private residential construction spending fell by 0.30 percent in January; this was the sixth consecutive month for declining private-sector residential construction spending.

Construction Spending Falls in January

Analysts cited costly building materials, fewer available options for prospective buyers, and higher mortgage rates as factors contributing to less construction spending. Homebuying traditionally slows during the winter months.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 3.55 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.77 percent and three basis points lower than for the previous week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose one basis point to 2.71 percent on average. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims were lower last week with 238,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 261,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts predicted 245,000 new claims would be filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 1.63 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.67 million continuing jobless claims filed.

Labor Reports Show Slower Jobs Growth, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up

ADP Payrolls reported 301,000 fewer private-sector jobs open in January as compared to 776,000 private-sector jobs available in December. Analysts expected 200,000 private-sector job openings in January. The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 467,000 jobs added in January as compared to the expected reading of 150,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 510,000 public and private-sector jobs added. Hiring in December was higher than expected as analysts predicted less hiring due to the ongoing spread of the omicron variant of COVID-19.

The national unemployment rate rose to 4.00 percent in January as compared to December’s reading of 3.90 percent. Analysts predicted national unemployment to hold steady at 3.90 percent.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 31, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 31, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices and the FHFA on home prices, data on new home sales, and the Federal Reserve’s statement on the federal interest rate range. The University of Michigan released its monthly survey on Consumer Sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in November

Home prices rose at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 18.80 percent in November according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. The 20-City Home Price Index, which is frequently used by real estate pros, reported that Phoenix, Arizona home prices rose by 32.20 percent year-over-year. Tampa, Florida home prices rose by 29 percent, and Miami, Florida home prices rose by 26.60 percent.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks data on homes owned and financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported  17.50 percent year-over-year growth in home prices in November as compared to October’s reading of 17.40 percent.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 811,000 sales in December; analysts expected a reading of 757,000 sales. New homes sold at a pace of 725,000 sales year-over-year in November.

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged, Hints at Raising Rates in 2022

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it did not raise the key federal funds rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent, but indicated future rate increases would be used to control inflation. Combined impacts of rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates presented challenges to first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but the median price of a single-family home fell to $377,700 in December.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by one basis point to 3.55 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.80 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.70 percent and 10 basis points higher than in the previous week. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 260,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 290,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.68 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.62 million ongoing claims filed 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending, job openings and quits, public and private sector jobs growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 24, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 24, 2022Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets, Commerce Department data on building permits issued, and housing starts. The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

National Association of Home Builders: Builder Confidence Falls One Point

Supply chain issues and rising inflation concerned builders surveyed about housing market conditions in January. The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 83 as compared to December’s reading of 84. While any reading over 50 is considered positive, January’s dip in builder confidence was the first decline in four months.

Component readings for the Housing Market Index also showed a slowing trend. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions was unchanged at an index reading of 90; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months fell two points to 83. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments also fell by two points to 69.

NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said, “NAHB analysis indicates the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has increased almost 19 percent since December 2020.” Softwood lumber prices rose approximately 85 percent in the last three months according to trade publication Random Lengths. Analysts said that tariffs and labor shortages have also added to the cost of residential home building.

Commerce Department readings on building permits issued and housing starts were higher in December/ 1.87 million building permits were issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to November’s reading of 1.72 million building permits issued. Housing starts also increased with 1.70 million starts reported as compared to November’s reading of 1.68 million housing starts. Analysts expected a seasonally-adjusted annual reading of 1.65 million single-family starts.

The National Association of Realtors® reported December’space of 6.18 million previously-owned homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected 6.48 million sales, which matched November’s reading.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Mortgage rates rose last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 3.56 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was 17 basis points higher at 2.79 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.60 percent and 31 basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year  fixed-rate mortgages. Basis points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent. Rising mortgage rates, high demand for homes, and buyer competition continued to present challenges for first-time and moderate-income home buyers. 

286,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week and exceeded expectations of 225,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 231,000 first-time claims filed. 1.64 million continuing claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.55 million ongoing claims filed. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Readings on pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment are also expected Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 18, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 18, 2022

Last week’s scheduled economic reporting focused on inflation with monthly and year-over-year readings on overall and core inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was confirmed for a second term as Federal Reserve chair.  The University of Michigan released its monthly survey on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Rises in December; Nears Fastest Growth Pace in 40 Years

Year-over-year inflation rose to a pace of seven percent in December and approached its fastest growth rate in 40 years according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts expected year-over-year inflationary growth of seven percent as compared to November’s pace of 6.80 percent. Month-to-month inflation slowed to

0.50 percent as compared to November’s month-to-month growth rate of 0.80 percent.

Housing costs, food, and automotive sectors drove inflation in December. Shortages of computer chips used in vehicles slowed production and increased demand for vehicles. New car prices rose by one percent and used-car prices rose by 3.50 percent month-to-month.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 5.50 percent year-over-year in December and surpassed the expected reading of 5.40 percent that was based on November’s core inflation rate of 4.90 percent. Rents rose by 0.40 percent for the third consecutive month. Food prices rose by 0.50 percent month-to-month and costs for clothing and furniture also rose.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was confirmed for a second term and addressed the Fed’s plans for slowing inflation. Mr. Powell said, “The economy no longer needs or wants the very highly accommodative policies we’ve had in place to deal with the pandemic and its aftermath.”

Energy prices fell by 0.40 percent in December and decreased for the first time since April.

Mortgage Rates Rise. Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie  Mac reported higher mortgage rates as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 3.4

Initial jobless claims rose last week with 230,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 207,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected first-time claims to decrease to 200,000 initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 1.60 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.75 million ongoing jobless claims filed.5 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 19 basis points and averaged 2.62 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose 16 basis points to 2.57 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for January reported lower consumer enthusiasm for current economic conditions with an index reading of 68.8 as compared to the expected reading of 70.0 and December’s index reading of 70.6.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on housing markets and sales of previously-owned homes. Readings on building permits issued and housing starts will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.