Last week’s scheduled economic reports included readings on housing starts, existing home sales, and Federal  Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

National Home Builders Association Releases June Housing Market Index

U.S.  home builder confidence rose by five points to an index reading of 55 in June according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. The June reading surpassed the expected reading of 51 and May’s housing market index reading of 50. Component readings for the Housing Market Index also rose as builder confidence in current market conditions rose five points and confidence in market conditions for the next six months rose six points.

NAHB said that a shortage of previously-owned homes for sale is driving sales of new homes and rising builder confidence. Many current homeowners refinanced to very low rates available during and immediately after the pandemic and are not inclined to refinance or buy new homes at current higher interest rates.

Mr. Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the NAHB, said: “A  bottom is forming for single-family home building as builder sentiment continues to gradually rise from the beginning of the year.” Mr. Dietz also noted that “with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its tightening cycle, it’s good news for future market conditions in terms of mortgage rates and the cost of builder and developer loans.”

June’s reading was the sixth consecutive month showing increasing home builder confidence and the 11^th month since builder sentiment moved into positive territory.

Mortgage Rates Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 6.67 percent and rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by seven basis points to an average rate of 6.03 percent.

Sales of previously-owned homes rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.30 million sales as compared to the expected reading of 4.25 million sales and April’s reading of April’  reading of 4.29 million sales.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Indices, new and pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on new and pending home sales and inflation. The final monthly reading for May consumer sentiment was released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Shortage of previously-owned homes for sale directs buyers to new homes

Homeowners weren’t in a hurry to sell their homes due to the low mortgage rates they obtained during the pandemic. Current mortgage rates are higher than pandemic-era rates, which influenced homeowners to stay in their homes and keep their lower existing mortgage rates. Home buyers turned to new home developments as an alternative to shopping for a home within the slim supply of available previously-owned homes.

The number of pending home sales was unchanged from March as compared to the expected reading of an 0.80 percent increase in pending sales and the March reading of a -5.20 percent decrease in pending home sales. Rising mortgage rates and concerns over the economy sidelined some sellers and would-be home buyers. Rising inflation continued to impact consumers as prices for goods and services rose by 0.40 percent in April as compared to the March increase of 0.10 percent. Year-over-year inflation rose to 4.40 percent in April as compared to the March year-over-year inflation reading of 4.20 percent. 

Consumer concerns about inflation and recession were supported by the government-sponsored mortgage organization  Fannie Mae, which predicted a recession in the second half of 2023.

Fed forecasts a recession and raises key interest rate range

The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that policymakers were divided on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision to raise its key interest-rate range to 5.00 percent and 5.25 percent. Some Fed members indicated that May’s interest rate hike may be the last for the near future as expectations of a recession rose. 

Mortgage rates and jobless claims rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 18 basis points to 6.57 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 22 basis points to 5.97 percent.

229,000 new jobless claims were filed last week; this reading fell short of the expected reading of 245,000 initial claims filed and exceeded the prior week’s reading of 225,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on public and private-sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released. 

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously-owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: U.S. Home Builder Confidence Rises in May

The National Association of Home Builders reported a five-point gain in home builder confidence in current housing market conditions in May. The index reading for May rose to 50 in May as compared to April’s reading of 45. Analysts expected a reading of 45 for May. Readings above 50 indicate a majority of home builders are positive about current housing market conditions. Component readings of the home builder index also rose as the gauge for current market conditions rose by five points to 50; the reading for market conditions over the next six months rose by seven points and the index reading for buyer traffic increased by two points.

Builders surveyed indicated that homeowners aren’t motivated to sell as many of them bought or refinanced their homes during the pandemic when mortgage rates were very low. Aspiring homeowners are turning to new homes for more options as demand for homes continues to outpace the number of previously-owned homes available.

 Higher demand for homes caused developers to reduce incentives to homebuyers. Homebuilders offering price reductions on new homes fell from 30 percent in April to 27 percent in May.  NAHB said home price reductions averaged six percent of original home prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.39 percent and were four basis points higher than for the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.75 percent, which was unchanged from the prior week.

242,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 255,000 expected claims and 264,000 first-time jobless claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the final consumer sentiment reading for May. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.