Last week’s economic reporting included coverage of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of Washington and the University of Michigan’s data on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

 

Federal Reserve: Chairman Jerome Powell Says the “Disinflationary Process” is Ongoing

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks made to the Economic Club of Washington that the “disinflationary process” has started, but he also indicated that January’s unexpectedly strong jobs report indicated that further interest rate hikes are necessary: “We think we need to do further rate increases and we think we’ll need to hold policy at a restrictive level for a period of time.” 

 

Several other senior Fed officials said that further interest rate hikes would be required to keep inflation in check; as 517,000 jobs were added last week after analysts predicted declining job growth as compared to the expected reading of 187,000 jobs added.The national unemployment rate fell to a 54-year low of 3.4 percent.

 

Analysts cautioned that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates to control inflation but Chairman Powell said that the Fed would likely raise rates only “a couple more times.”

 

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was three basis points higher at 6.12 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 5.25 percent. 

 

Jobless claims also rose last week with 196,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 183,000 initial claims filed. 1.69 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.65 million ongoing claims.

 

The University of Michigan reported that its initial consumer sentiment reading for February rose to an index reading of 66.4 as compared to the expected reading of 65.1 and last month’s index reading of 64.9. Consumer sentiment readings over 50 indicate most survey respondents were positive about current economic conditions. 

 

The University also released monthly readings on year-over-year inflationary predictions. February’s early reading predicts 4.2 percent year-over-year inflation as compared to January’s reading of 3.9 percent year-over-year inflation.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home prices, inflation, retail sales, and data on building permits issued and housing starts. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home price growth from S&P Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Administration. Monthly reports on job growth and unemployment were released by the federal government and ADP. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller HPI: Home Prices Drop in November

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices revealed that U.S. home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in November. The National Home Price Index fell by -3.1 percent year over year in November as compared to a positive reading of 2.8 percent home price growth in October. Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia held the top three places in the 20-City Home Price Index. Detroit, Michigan was the only city to post a positive reading for home price growth in November’s 20-City Home Price Index.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that prices of homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises fell by 0.10 percent in November. Analysts expect that home prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims

Average fixed mortgage rates fell last week. Freddie Mac reported that the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 6.09 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 5.14 percent.

183,000 first-time jobless claims were filed as compared to the expected reading of 195,000 new jobless claims and the previous week’s reading of 186,000 first-time jobless claims filed. 1.66 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.67 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Public and Private Sector Job Growth

The federal government’s Non-Farm payrolls report for January posted 517,000 jobs added as compared to the expected reading of 187,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 260,000 jobs added.ADP reported 106,000 private-sector jobs added in January as compared to expectations of 190,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 253,000 private-sector jobs added.

The national unemployment rate for January was 3.4 percent; analysts expected an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent and December’s unemployment rate was 3.5 percent. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on consumer sentiment, inflation, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on U.S. housing markets, and Commerce Department data on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® reported sales of previously owned homes, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Homebuilder Sentiment Rises in December

The National Association of Home Builders reported increased homebuilder confidence in U.S. housing market conditions in December; this was the first time in 12 months that homebuilder confidence rose. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions rose by four points; builder confidence in home sales conditions over the next six months increased by two points. Builder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in new housing developments rose by three points.

Jerry Konter, a Georgia home builder and chairman of NAHB, said: “It appears that the low point for building sent in this cycle was registered in December, even as many builders continue to use a variety of incentives including price reductions to bolster sales.  The rise in builder sentiment also means that cycle lows for permits and starts are likely near, and a rebound for homebuilding could be underway later in 2023.”

Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, predicted that single-family home building will increase as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability. Mr. Dietz said, “Improved housing affordability will increase housing demand as the nation grapples with a structural housing deficit of 1.5 million units.”

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 18 basis points to 6.15 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.28 percent and were 24 basis points lower on average.

First-time jobless claims fell to 190,000 claims filed as compared to expectations of 215,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 205,000 new jobless claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims increased to 1.65 million claims filed compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.63 million continuing jobless claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, consumer sentiment, and predictions on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting and its customary post-meeting press conference, labor-sector data on public and private-sector jobs, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

FOMC Meeting: Policymakers seek a balance between high inflation and rising rates

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on December 13 and 14 reflect committee members’ concern over controlling rapidly growing inflation while avoiding a recession. While committee members said that they made “significant progress” in raising rates to cut inflation, members said they needed to avoid raising rates too fast and creating a recession. Policymakers asked for “flexibility” from investors and consumers.

The Fed’s monetary policy actions depend on economic developments; if high inflation persists, policymakers will likely continue raising the Fed’s target interest rate range. If inflation eases, so will the Fed’s pace of raising its target interest rate range. The Fed re-asserted its goal of achieving two percent inflationary growth. The meeting minutes emphasized that the Committee’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate growth did not indicate any changes to the Fed’s goal of two percent inflation.

Mortgage rates rise, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 6.48 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 5.73 percent.

204,000 new jobless claims were filed last week, which fell short of the expected reading of 223,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading, also of 223,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.69 million claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.72 million ongoing claims filed.

The national unemployment rate fell to 3.5 percent in December as compared to 3.6 percent n November and the expected unemployment rate of 3.7 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on month-to-month and year-over-year inflation and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.