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S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Gain in August

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Home prices gained in August per the 20-City S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Analysts said that home values continue to expand in spite of challenges including low inventories of available homes and strict mortgage qualification requirements.

National Home Price Index Near 2006 Peak

According to the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index, August home prices are 0.10 percent below their 2006 peak and all metro areas in the 20-City Home Price Index posted gains. Top gains in the 20-City Home Price Index were posted by Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year gain of 11.70 percent, Seattle, Washington home prices gained 11.40 percent and Denver, Colorado home prices gained 8.80 percent year-over-year.

All metro areas included in the 20-City Index posted year-over-year gains in excess of one percent. New York City had the lowest year-over-year price gain with a year-over-year reading of 1.70 percent in August. Washington, D.C. home prices rose 2.30 percent year-over-year. Home prices in the Cleveland, Ohio metro area increased by 2.90 percent year-over-year.

New Housing Bubble Unlikely

With home price gains close to peak prices seen before the housing bubble burst, concerns may arise over the potential for a new housing bubble to occur in coming months. Analysts say this is unlikely as home buyers are not taking out extreme levels of mortgage debt seen at the onset of the Great Recession. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee, said “There is no reason to fear another massive collapse is around the corner. The run-up to the financial crisis was marked with both rising home prices and rapid growth in mortgage debt.”

Possible Fed Rate Hike Won’t Cause Mortgage Rates to Explode

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed’s target federal funds rate in December. This action will lead to interest rate increases for consumer credit and mortgages, but not at levels that would make mortgage loans suddenly unaffordable. While gradual increases in federal interest rates would cause mortgage rates to rise over time, market conditions and related factors could potentially cause home prices to slow or even dip in some areas. Regional influences including employment and demand for homes are examples of factors contributing to home price growth or decline in specific areas.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in July

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Home prices dipped slightly in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year, home price growth dipped to 5.00 percent from June’s reading of 5.10 percent. The Pacific Northwest led the nation in home price appreciation. Portland, Oregon had the highest year-over-year home price growth with a rate of 12.40 percent. Seattle, Washington posted year-over-year home price growth of 11.20 percent. Denver, Colorado was third with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.40 percent.

Home prices in San Francisco, California slowed; year-over-year, home prices grew by 6.00 percent in contrast to home price growth topping the 20-city index in recent months. Analysts observed that cooling home prices in San Francisco could represent the end of the area’s housing bubble.

Year-over-year home price growth was lowest in New York, New York with a reading of 1.70 percent. Washington, D.C. posted a year-over-year reading of 2.00 percent; Cleveland, Ohio posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 2.50 percent.

Month–to–Month Home Price Growth Provides Surprises

The largest month-to-month gains in home prices were posted by Portland, Oregon at 1.20 percent, Denver, Colorado with a reading of 0.90 percent and Detroit, Michigan with a July reading of 0.80 percent. While year-over-year home price growth readings are less volatile than month-to-month readings, signs of increasing home values in cities with depressed home price growth rates are a positive sign.

On the other hand, San Francisco, California posted a flat reading for month-to-month growth after recently topping year-over-year readings in the 20-City Home Price Index. With skyrocketing prices and limited inventories of available homes, it appears that San Francisco home prices may have reached their upward limit.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Index Committee, said that July’s readings indicate further improvement of the economy and housing markets. This progress could prove difficult to sustain as house prices continue to outpace wages and rising home prices continue to sideline first-time buyers. Slim supplies of homes for sale are creating higher-than-average demand for homes that fuels rapidly rising home prices. This further complicates home purchase options for home buyers who compete with investors and others who are able to meet or exceed asking prices and purchase homes with cash.

Home buyers requiring mortgages have been supported by relatively low mortgage rates, but strict mortgage credit standards continue to provide obstacles for credit-challenged buyers. Financial institutions continue to take a conservative stance on mortgage lending after sustaining severe losses and government ridicule in the wake of the Great Recession.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 5, 2016

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Closing Paperwork: How to Read and Understand the Truth-in-Lending Disclosure StatementLast week’s economic events included S&P Case-Shiller’s Housing Market Indices for April along with reports on Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales. Consumer Confidence was higher in June in spite of low wage growth and inflation well below the Fed’s goal of 2.00 percent annually.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Ticks Downward

April home values grew by 5.40 percent in April on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Case Shiller reported a drop in momentum from the March reading of 5.50 percent according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. While no city included in the 20-City Index reported lower home values, the rate of growth appears to be slowing. High home prices driven by high demand and slim inventories of available homes may continue to lose steam as high home prices coupled with stricter mortgage requirements sideline first-time and moderate income buyers.

Pending home sales in May saw their first decline since August 2015 According to the National Association of Realtors®, Pending sales dropped from April’s downwardly revised index reading of 115.0 to 110.8. Pending home sales were -3.70 percent lower in May as compared to April’s reading of +3.90 percent. The drop in pending sales, which represents homes under contract that are not yet closed, is largely blamed on markedly low inventories of homes for sale in many areas.

Construction spending was higher in May, but remained in negative territory with a reading of -0.80 percent as compared to expectations of +0.50 percent and April’s reading of -2.00 percent. While the overall reading appears unremarkable, residential construction spending was 5.30 percent higher in May.

Mortgage Rates Lower, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates in the aftermath of Great Britain’s vote to leave the EU. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.48 percent.15-year mortgage rates averaged 2.78 percent and the average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was 2.70 percent. Discount points were also lower at 0.50, 0.40 and 0.50 percent respectively.

Jobless reports jumped due to the end of the school year; New York State in particular allows some workers to file jobless claims when schools are closed. 268,000 new jobless claims were filed as compared to expectations of 265,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 258,000 new claims.

Consumer confidence rose in June, but consumers were surveyed before the Brexit vote. Consumer confidence increased to 98.0 in June as compared to May’s index reading of 92.40.Stronger job markets and stabilized gas prices were seen as contributing factors that boosted consumer confidence.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic reports include several labor-related reports including Non-Farm Payrolls, ADP Payrolls, June’s national unemployment rate and minutes of the Fed’s last FOMC meeting. Freddie Mac’s survey of mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 2, 2016

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Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates

Last week’s economic news included Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, along with new and pending home sales readings. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve met analyst’s expectations and did not raise the target federal funds rate, which remains at 0.25 to 0.50 percent. Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates survey and the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in February

Average home prices growth slowed in February according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Home prices fell from January’s year-over-year reading of 5.70 percent to 5.40 percent. 13 of 20 cities included in the index showed slower growth in home prices. Portland, Oregon showed the highest year-over-year price gain at 11.90 percent followed by Seattle, Washington at 11.00 percent and Denver, Colorado at 9.70 percent

Washington, DC had the slowest year-over-year growth rate of 1.40 percent; Chicago, Illinois and New York, New York where home prices grew 1.80 percent and 2.10 percent respectively. S&P Index Chairman David Blitzer said that tight inventories of available homes continued to drive home prices. Analysts are concerned with shrinking affordability, which keeps first-time and moderate income buyers from buying homes. Analysts caution that first-time and moderate-income buyers are the “bread and butter” of housing markets. Without their participation, current homeowners cannot sell and move up to larger homes.

New Home Sales Lower after February Reading Revised

New home sales dipped in March to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 511,000 after February’s reading was revised upward to 519,000 sales. Regional results for new home sales were mixed. The Northeast posted flat sales in March; The Midwest posted the highest year-over-year growth in home prices at 18.50 percent followed by the South with a year-over-year gain of 5.00 percent. New home sales fell by 23.60 percent in the West, which was likely due to rapidly escalating home prices in high-cost metro areas.

Pending home sales for March grew by 1.40 percent for a second consecutive monthly increase. Analysts viewed March’s reading as positive for a healthy spring season for home sales. Pending home sales forecast future closings and mortgage lending.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage seven basis points higher at 3.66 percent. 15-year fixed mortgage rates were four basis points higher at 2.89 percent; the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was five basis points higher at 2.86 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60, 0.50 and 0.50 percent respectively.

New jobless claims also rose last week with 257,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 260,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 248,000 new claims filed. Analysts said that fewer layoffs suggest strengthening job market. Last week’s four-week average of new jobless claims was 256,000 new claims, which was the lowest reading since December 1973. Improving labor markets can encourage would-be home buyers to become active buyers.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on construction spending, private sector employment, non-farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on new jobless claims and mortgage rates will be released as usual.

Case-Shiller Report Shows Home Prices Rose in January

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Case-Shiller Report Shows Home Prices Rose in JanuaryHome prices were 5.70 percent higher year-over-year in January according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Top year-over-year gains were posted by Portland, Oregon at 11.80 percent, San Francisco, California at 10.80 percent and Seattle Washington posted a year-over-year gain of 10.70 percent. Denver, Colorado, which had top gains in recent months, posted year-over-year home price growth of 10.20 percent.

Lowest year over-year gains for January were posted by Chicago, Illinois at 2.10 percent, Washington, D.C at 2.20 percent and New York, New York at 2.80 percent.

Average home prices remained about 12 percent below their summer 2006 peak, but have recovered to 2007 levels.

Rising Home Prices and Short Inventory of Homes Impacts Buyers and Sellers

David M Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Indices Committee expressed concerns over rapidly rising home prices and the shortage of available homes. Mr. Blitzer said “would-be sellers seeking to trade up are having a hard time finding a new larger home.” Analysts also noted that home prices are escalating faster than wages, which were growing at a rate of 2.20 percent annually as of February.

New construction is not keeping up with demand; the current supply of available homes is below the normal six month inventory. Mr. Blitzer said that home building is the segment of the housing sector that creates economic growth.

Rapidly rising home prices and low inventories of available homes are potentially sidelining first-time and moderate income buyers. This trend also sandwiches homeowners who want to buy larger homes between a short supply of available homes and finding qualified buyers for their current homes. Mr. Blitzer said that high amounts of education debt and consumer debt are contributing to younger buyers’ inability to qualify for mortgages. Mortgage lenders have loosened mortgage qualification requirements somewhat, but Mr. Blitzer said that lenders haven’t forgotten what happened 10 years ago; they remain reluctant to further ease lending requirements.

Pending Home Sales Rise in February

In related news, the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales rose 3.50 percent in February as compared to an expected reading of 1.80 percent and January’s negative reading of -3.0 percent February’s reading for pending home sales was the highest in seven months.

Analysts and real estate pros use pending home sales readings s as indications of future closings and mortgage loan activity.

NAR Chairman Lawrence Yun cited lower mortgage rates as the driving force behind February’s jump in pending home sales. Mr. Yun said that building more homes is essential for boosting home sales; he cautioned that failure to increase the current supply of available homes could cause home sales to “plateau.”

December Home Prices Rise According To S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

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December Home Prices Rise According To S&P Case-Shiller Home Price IndexHome prices rose slightly in December according to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released Tuesday. According to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, which covers cities representing all nine US Census divisions, home prices rose 5.40 percent year-over-year in December as compared to November’s reading of 5.20 percent.

December’s year-over-year home price increases were led by Portland Oregon at 11.40 percent, San Francisco, California at 10.30 percent and Denver, Colorado with a year-over-year reading of 10.20 percent. 10 cities reported higher home prices while eight cities reported lower home prices and year-over-year home prices were unchanged for two cities.

Year-over-year national home prices equaled winter 2007 home price levels, The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index has recovered by 36.30 percent since March 2012. Phoenix, Arizona posted its 12th consecutive month of home price gains for the longest streak of price gains in 2015.

Home Price Growth Surpasses Core Inflation Rate

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that while home prices continue to rise, they are rising at a slower pace. All but one city (Washington, D.C.) posted home price gains higher than the core inflation rate of 2.20 percent. Home prices rising faster than inflation is positive for home sellers, but would-be-buyers may sit on the sidelines due to concerns about affordability. On the plus side, job markets are strong and mortgage rates remain low, which will likely encourage more first-time and moderate income buyers to enter the market.

S&P Case-Shiller Month-to-Month Readings

After seasonal adjustments, both the Case-Shiller 10 and 20 City home price indices posted a month-to-month gain of 0.80 percent. 19 of 20 cities posted month-to-month gains after seasonal adjustments. Factors contributing to higher home prices include high demand for homes coupled with a short supply of available homes. Home builders are ramping up construction, which should ease demand and help stabilize prices.

In related news, The National Association of Realtors reported that January sales of existing homes rose to 5.47 million sales on an annual basis as compared to expectations of 5.30 million sales and December’s reading of 5.45 million sales. January’s reading was 11 percent higher year-over-year and indicated that homes are selling in spite of rapidly rising prices in many areas.

Analysts said that the shortage of homes is causing an imbalance in market conditions; currently there is a four month supply of available homes as compared to an average six month supply of available homes. There have been only three instances when home supplies were lower in the past 16 years.