The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets.

Job Wages

The average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. total private sector reached ($37.41). This represents a 3.57% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting ongoing, though moderating, wage growth, according to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 5.72%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.07%, bringing the current rate to 6.37%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.93%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.95%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, compared to the expected 205,000 claims. The previous week’s figure was 190,000.

What’s Ahead

Delayed inflation data for the CPI and PPI is scheduled for release next week. It has yet to be determined whether additional delays will occur.

The latest Trade Balance data has shown that despite the rigorous action involved with tariffs, it has had little impact on adjusting the trade balance amongst the US and other countries. The imbalance has gone the other direction — becoming worse — the last 3 releases alone. 

The unemployment data has shown to be surprisingly resilient as people are not gaining nor losing jobs on the average. Amidst the current economic events and administrative events, there has been some job scarcity in many markets but the impact has not been shown in the data. 

Hourly wages has also again consistently lagged behind inflation, and this release has shown that trend to remain. The next week there is scheduled inflation data from the CPI and PPI reports set to release, but they have been often delayed with the current affairs.

U.S. Trade Deficit
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Less Than Expected To $57.3 Billion In February: A report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday showed the U.S. trade deficit increased by less than expected in the month of February. The Commerce Department said the trade deficit widened to $57.3 billion in February from a revised $54.7 billion in January.

Unemployment
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in late April sank to a 57-year low, underscoring the remarkably low level of layoffs in the U.S. economy amid heavy turbulence. So-called initial jobless claims sank by 26,000 to 189,000 in the seven days ended April 25, the government said Thursday. That’s the lowest level since 1969, when the population and the economy were much smaller.

The U.S. jobs market has shown surprising strength in the past few years, even as hiring nosedived in response to higher tariffs, a decline in immigration and general economic uncertainty.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, with the current rate at 5.64%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.01% for this week. Current rates at 5.92%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.01% for this week. Current rates at 5.94%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 205,000 compared to the expected claims of 189,000.

What’s Ahead
Inflation data from the CPI and PPI is scheduled for next week, though ongoing delays may push back the releases.

A relatively light week given recent events, with the only notable releases being Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales. Consumer Sentiment has broken its recent downtrend, ticking up slightly. However, in the face of rising gas prices and increasing costs of living, this may shift in the next release. Retail Sales have also shown a positive uptick, indicating that the economy remains resilient despite ongoing global events.

Consumer Sentiment
US consumer sentiment showed some improvement amid a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, but it’s still at record lows, according to new data from the University of Michigan. The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed consumer sentiment ended April with a final reading of 49.8, above the 48.5 reading economists expected but marking the lowest level on record — below readings taken during the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and when inflation spiked following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Retail Sales
U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in March as the war with Iran boosted gasoline prices and led to a record surge in receipts at service stations, while tax refunds underpinned spending elsewhere.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 5.58%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.23%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 214,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 208,000.

What’s Ahead
Employment data, Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit should be strong releases for this upcoming week.

With the full release of all the data for PPI and CPI—albeit delayed—we now have a clearer picture that the recent wars have pushed inflation to a three-year high.

The Federal Reserve has made no clear indication of its plans, but for the foreseeable future, much of the speculation points toward keeping rates at their current levels, with no plans to raise or cut them.

Consumer Sentiment reports, as well as the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, have also provided insight that conditions are slowing down, as businesses appear to be tempering activity amid the war in Iran. This should signal an overall slowdown across numerous markets.

Price Producer Index (PPI)
The producer-price index jumped 0.5% last month, the government said Tuesday, to mark the fourth straight big increase. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a sharper 1.1% advance.

Core PPI
U.S. inflation at the wholesale level rose to a three-year high in March due to surging oil prices tied to the Iran war, but aside from energy, the increases in the cost of other goods and services were surprisingly tame. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 5.65%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.07%, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 5.88%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.89%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 207,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week is the Federal Reserve’s PCE Index, which is known to be more timely in its data releases. This will be followed by the Personal Income and Spending data. Both are strong indicators of the current state of the market for consumers.

The core CPI and PCE data have been released, leaving only the non-core CPI data delayed. Amid the Iran war, inflation has once again risen to higher levels, with most sectors seeing widespread price increases due to higher fuel and energy costs. As fuel costs rise, there is a knock-on effect across other consumer products as well. However, inflation has remained within expectations when considering the impact of the war.

PCE Index
Shortly before the start of the Iran war, a key measure of U.S. inflation rose at an excessive pace for the third month in a row, underscoring the latest challenge facing the Federal Reserve as it tries to squelch stubborn price pressures. The personal-consumption price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, rose by 0.4%, matching the forecast of economists.

Consumer Price Index
In March, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in March (SA); up 2.6 percent over the year (NSA). CPI for all items rises 0.9% in March; gasoline up.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, with the current rate at 5.74%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.09%, with the current rate at 6.37%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 219,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The prior week landed at 203,000.

What’s Ahead
The most significant upcoming releases will be additional inflation data from the remaining CPI and PPI reports, along with the Federal Beige Book, which will provide insight into the current state of the economy.

With the continued delay in the CPI and PCE inflation data, this week’s headlines will focus on unemployment figures. Job reports show an increase of 178,000 workers, though this growth is unlikely to persist given the current state of the economy. Unemployment data has also shown a positive release, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous report.

Since the Federal Reserve discontinued rate cuts in December, the outlook remains highly uncertain as it continues to grapple with numerous aspects of the current economic environment.

Unemployment Data
The U.S. added a greater-than-expected 178,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate fell a tick to 4.3%, signs that the labor market is holding firm even as the economy undergoes another spasm of uncertainty tied to the Iran war. The increase in employment in March, the biggest in 15 months, was padded by the return of 31,000 striking nurses. Better weather last month may have also helped.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 5.77%
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, with the current rate at 6.46%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.91%
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.19%, with current rates at 5.93%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 202,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The prior week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead
We should see the PCE index data (the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation) as well as CPI data released.