The FOMC Minutes and Consumer Sentiment report were the most impactful calendar items last week, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s resolve to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate.

While there is considerable speculation about another rate increase, recent analyst expectations suggest that the Fed will hold rates at their current level for some time. The Consumer Sentiment report showed a slight increase, largely driven by moderating gas prices, which have helped provide consumers with some relief.

Consumer Sentiment Report
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised higher to 49.5 in June 2026, up from a preliminary reading of 48.9, although it remained slightly below forecasts of 50. Still, sentiment improved from 44.8 in May, the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in gasoline prices. The expectations gauge was at 50.7, the highest in three months, compared to 49.3 in the initial estimate, as consumers’ worries over long-term consequences of the Iran conflict appear to be easing.

FOMC Minutes
The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank will no longer provide traditional forward guidance on future interest-rate decisions, signaling a shift in its communication approach. Inflation risks have eased in recent weeks, but the US central bank remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2% target, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said at the ECB’s Sintra Forum. Warsh stressed that delivering price stability remains the Fed’s primary objective, while underscoring policymakers’ independence in setting monetary policy and rejecting any suggestion that political pressure would influence their decisions.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.13%, bringing the current rate to 6.73%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.12%, bringing the current rate to 7.40%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, with the current rate at 7.15%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, with the current rate at 7.17%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 199,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week brings a full economic calendar, including the CPI and PPI inflation data releases, retail sales, and the increasingly impactful 5- and 10-year Treasury note auctions.

While the Core PCE Index came in at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

With inflation still running above the Federal Reserve’s target, there remains room for rates to stay elevated or potentially increase over the next several rate decisions if the Fed remains focused on restraining inflation.

The JOLTS job openings report has also revealed a larger-than-expected gap. Job growth across the board has been slowing, with growth concentrated in only a handful of sectors.

The nonfarm payroll figures have also come in well below expectations, while the unemployment rate remains elevated on a year-over-year basis when compared with historical levels over the past decade.

PCE Index
PCE increased 3.4% from a year earlier, while core PCE—which excludes food and energy—increased 3.0%. Both were still above the Fed’s 2% target. 

JOLTs Job Openings
Job openings fell to 7.08 million in August, down from a revised 7.34 million in July and below economists’ expectations of 7.23 million. The job openings rate declined to 4.3%, signaling continued cooling in labor demand.

Non-farm Payroll
Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% in September to $37.81, bringing annual wage growth to 3.0%. Wage growth slowed from 3.1% in August, providing a more favorable signal for inflation and interest rates.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.18%, bringing the current rate to 6.60%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.25%, bringing the current rate to 7.28%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.05%, with current rate at 7.20%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 7.21%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 197,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 202,000.

What’s Ahead
The following week will be relatively light, with the Consumer Sentiment Report being the largest release, alongside major bill and bond auctions. There are also a couple of key speeches from Federal Reserve members that could provide forward guidance on future rate decisions.

With a light week the previous week, only a few data reports will have any far reaching impact, with the M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve Balance sheet giving the most insight.

The M2 Money supply has really only increased ever since the COVID pandemic, and has more or less kept in line with the rate inflation has been impacting the costs of many sectors.

While the Federal Reserve balance sheets show a trend of increasing lately, it has shown there is still restraint by the Federal Reserve which is evidenced by the recent increase in interest rates. They are showing strong intent that they do want to combat the rising inflation and bring it down under control.

M2 Money Supply
M2 increased to $23.343 trillion in August, up from $23.218 trillion in July, an increase of approximately $124.9 billion, or 0.54% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, M2 was up about 5.66%, compared with $22.093 trillion in August 2025.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
The Fed’s securities held outright totaled about $6.471 trillion, including $4.558 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities and $1.910 trillion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Compared with the previous week, Treasury holdings increased by roughly $3.9 billion, while MBS holdings declined by approximately $3.1 billion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.16%, bringing the current rate to 6.42%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 7.03%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.34%, with current rate at 7.15%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.35%, with current rate at 7.17%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 220,000 compared to the expected claims of 210,000. The previous week landed at 207,000.

What’s Ahead
PCE Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, is due next week. This will be followed up by Non-farm Payroll and Unemployment Data. Lastly, there will also be some insight on current GDP growth numbers.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise rates to combat significant inflation have come to pass, with a modest 0.25% increase in the rate. The Federal Reserve has stated that it remains committed to restoring inflation to its 2.0% target, which will likely include further rate increases in the future. The rest of the week featured a light economic calendar with very few impactful releases, leaving the Federal Reserve’s rate decision as the primary driver of market activity.

FOMC Rate Decision
At its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points, from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00%. This was the Fed’s first rate increase since July 2023.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.17%, bringing the current rate to 6.26%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.19%, bringing the current rate to 6.95%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.13%, with current rate at 6.81%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.12%, with current rate at 6.82%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 198,000 compared to the expected claims of 208,000. The previous week landed at 206,000.

What’s Ahead
Another light week lies ahead. The notable reports will be the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and M2 Money Supply data releases. These reports can provide valuable insight into changes in liquidity and the broader money supply, both of which can influence inflation and overall economic conditions.

While CPI data has come in within expectations for current inflation, inflation remains much higher than in previous years. The rate is holding steady at 2.4%, which is above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target. 

There are sectors where cost has seen significant increase and has not been reflected in the CPI due to the more recent changes implemented by the Trump administration. Fuel costs, for example, have seen an upward year-over-year trend that has been exacerbated by the recent war in Iran.

The Fed Beige Book and balance sheet have also shown steady growth and an upward trend as of late. Despite inflation data running counter to this idea, there are still widespread expectations that rates will be cut again.

Consumer Price Index
Consumer prices increased 0.4% in August, while core CPI rose 0.3%. Annual inflation remained at 3.4%, with core inflation easing to 2.4%. While underlying inflation continues to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the monthly increase suggests that inflationary pressures remain persistent.

Producer Price Index
Producer prices increased 0.4% in August, while prices for goods rose 1.1% and services increased 0.1%. Producer prices were up 5.4% from a year ago, indicating continued wholesale inflation pressure. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 4.6% year over year. The stronger headline reading could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about future rate cuts, potentially putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.09%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.76%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.24%, with current rate at 6.68%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.24%, with current rate at 6.70%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 206,000 compared to the expected claims of 200,000. The previous week landed at 209,000.

What’s Ahead
FOMC is holding an economics projection meeting which should provide forward guidance on policy. Additionally, the Federal Reserve Interest Rate decision happening mid-week, making for a very light week.

The Non-farm Payroll figures are a strong indicator of the job market and showed a notable increase this quarter. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate a significant shift in the job market as a whole, as certain sectors have experienced outsized impacts compared to others. JOLTs job openings data does support the increase in openings seen over the last quarter, though it is not among the largest indicators on the broader economic scale.

Non-farm Payrolls
The +162,000 jobs was considerably stronger than the 31,000 average monthly gain over the preceding 12 months. Food services added 59K and local-government education added 42K, while information employment fell 23K.

JOLTs Job Openings
The number of job openings was little changed at 7.3 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Hires and total separations both changed little at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, bringing the current rate to 6.04%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.71%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rate at 6.44%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.09%, with current rate at 6.46%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 200,000 compared to the expected claims of 209,000. The previous week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead
PPI and CPI inflation data are set to be released mid-week, along with other notable economic releases, including the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and Consumer Credit data.