With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected.

This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level.

This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will adjust rates either up or down in the coming week.

Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, both in line with expectations. The core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in May, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared with the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.84%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, bringing the current rate to 6.52%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a -0.04% decrease, with current rate at 6.14%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a -0.03% decrease, with current rate at 6.16%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The previous week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead
A lighter release week ahead, with only the Federal Reserve Rate Decision on the horizon.

Unemployment data has been released, revealing an interesting trend: different demographic groups are facing varying, and in some cases significantly higher, levels of unemployment.

While the overall unemployment rate has remained steady at 4.3%, some demographics are experiencing substantially higher unemployment within their respective fields. This comes alongside hourly wage reports which have met the expected growth level for this month.

Historically, however, wage growth has been offset by inflation rising at a much faster pace. As a result, many Americans have found the cost of living increasingly difficult to manage as they attempt to economize and cope with rising fuel, energy, and consumer goods costs.

Unemployment Reports
Unemployment rates for every major group: The lowest is 3.2%, the highest 14.7% The U.S. unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% in May for the third month in a row, but different groups face different challenges finding a job or keeping one. 

U.S. Hourly Wages
Inflation surged throughout the U.S. economy in late April and May, forcing Americans to try to quickly adjust to a new phase of reduced spending power, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest report on economic conditions around the country, known as the “beige book.” Affordability pressures due to higher energy prices from the war with Iran led to a widening gap between spending across income groups.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02%, bringing the current rate to 5.79%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.48%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.08% increase, with current rate at 6.18%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.07% increase, with current rate at 6.19%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 225,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The previous week landed at 215,000.

What’s Ahead
Attention now turns to the upcoming CPI and PPI reports, which will offer fresh insight into inflation trends.

The PCE Index inflation data has been released on schedule, and it paints a rather grim outlook for the future. Inflation has reached a three-year high, and given that it is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, it does not bode well for any impending rate cuts and may even raise the possibility of future rate increases.

This is somewhat offset by consumer spending having exceeded expectations, but this appears to be entirely related to high fuel prices, whether consumers want to spend that much or not.

PCE Index
The main inflation barometer preferred by the Federal Reserve rose to a three-year high in April and could rise even higher, posing a stiff challenge for households, businesses and the broader U.S. economy. The personal-consumption price index rose by 0.4% last month, the fifth large increase in a row.

Consumer Spending
Consumer spending rose in April at a seemingly robust rate, but only because of inflation. Americans aren’t getting much bang for their buck these days with gas prices so high. Personal spending increased 0.5% in April, the government said, but inflation also rose 0.4%. Household spending barely rose if inflation is taken into account.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, bringing the current rate to 5.87%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, bringing the current rate to 6.53%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a -0.08% decrease, with current rate at 6.10%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a -0.08% decrease, with current rate at 6.12%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 213,000. The previous week landed at 210,000.

What’s Ahead
U.S. wage and employment reports are due next week, along with consumer credit data and several manufacturing-related releases. The following week will bring the latest CPI and PPI data releases.

With the prior week’s release of the inflation data and next week’s release of the PCE Index data — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure — it has been an exceptionally light week for economic releases. The only notable reports were Leading Economic Indicators and Consumer Sentiment, both of which showed declines. Consumer sentiment, in particular, has seen a significant drop since the change in administration, reaching lows not seen in decades.

U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US rose slightly by 0.1% in April 2026 to 97.4 (2016=100), following a 0.6% decline in March. Overall, the LEI fell by 0.7% over the six months between October 2025 and April 2026, a less severe rate of decline than its 1.0% contraction over the previous six months (April to October 2025).

Consumer Sentiment
The index of consumer sentiment dropped 4.1 points to 44.8 in May, touching the lowest level in the history of the survey going back to 1978, when it began to be published monthly.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.14%, bringing the current rate to 5.85%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.15%, bringing the current rate to 6.51%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.18%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 6.20%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 209,000 compared to the expected claims of 212,000. The previous week landed at 211,000.

What’s Ahead
The following week should feature the release of the PCE Index inflation data, with an otherwise light week surrounding it.

The CPI and PPI came in on schedule, and the results were warmer than expected, with the Producer Price Index showing an increase of 0.6% — nearly double the expected 0.3% rise. This is also reflected in the elevated, though expected, CPI reading of 0.6%. This is certainly being driven by increased fuel and energy costs.

This is further supported by U.S. Retail Sales showing an increase, though high gas prices and inflation are playing a major role in the rise in sales figures. As a result, the rate cuts the Federal Reserve had discussed in the past are now looking very unlikely to happen.

Consumer Price Index
The U.S. inflation rate leaped to a nearly three-year high of 3.8% in April because of higher gas prices and the pain for consumers isn’t going away anytime soon. The spurt in inflation since the Iran war began 10 weeks ago could force the Federal Reserve to shelve an interest-rate cut this summer, especially since the job market has improved. The Fed cut a key interest rate three times last year to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

Producer Price Index
A recap of consumer prices in April showed inflation climbing to a three-year high. Now, the latest look at skyrocketing wholesale prices points to even higher inflation in the months ahead. The producer price index jumped 1.4% in April, the government said Wednesday, marking the biggest advance in more than four years.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, bringing the current rate to 5.71%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, bringing the current rate to 6.36%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.24% increase, with current rate at 6.17%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.24% increase, with current rate at 6.19%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 211,000 compared to the expected claims of 205,000. The previous week landed at 199,000.

What’s Ahead
A light week planned for next week, with only the Consumer Sentiment taking center stage.

The inflation data scheduled for this week has been pushed back by one week. The unemployment data was the only impactful economic report released this week. Across the board, unemployment statistics came in within expectations, while wage increases were slightly below expectations. Historically, wages have lagged behind inflation, making both unemployment and wage growth strong barometers of the economy’s overall health. Despite the current state of affairs, the economy appears to be holding strong, as reflected across the broader markets.

Job Wages

The average hourly earnings for all employees in the U.S. total private sector reached ($37.41). This represents a 3.57% increase over the past 12 months, reflecting ongoing, though moderating, wage growth, according to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.08%, bringing the current rate to 5.72%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.07%, bringing the current rate to 6.37%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.93%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a 0.01% increase, with current rate at 5.95%.

Jobless Claims

Initial jobless claims were reported at 200,000, compared to the expected 205,000 claims. The previous week’s figure was 190,000.

What’s Ahead

Delayed inflation data for the CPI and PPI is scheduled for release next week. It has yet to be determined whether additional delays will occur.