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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – July 5, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - July 5, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and data on pending home sales. Readings on job growth and und unemployment were also released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: April Home Price Gains Reach Record Highs

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of investment strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that April’s year-over-year national home price growth rate of 14.60 percent was “ truly extraordinary.” All cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index posted higher home prices;  five cities including Charlotte, North Carolina, Cleveland, Ohio, and Dallas, Texas posted their highest home price gains ever along with Denver, Colorado, and Seattle, Washington.  

Phoenix, Arizona, San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington continued to hold the top three positions for annual home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index.

Realtors Report Increase in Pending Home Sales

Pending home sales rose by eight percent in May as compared to April. Analysts expected a one percent decrease in pending sales. Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors®, said “May’s strong increase in transactions, as well as a sudden erosion in home affordability, was indeed a surprise. The housing market is attracting buyers b due to the decline in mortgage rates and an uptick in listings.”

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Show Mixed Results

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.98 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 2.26 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.54 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-yar fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 364,000 initial claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 415,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims increased with 3.47 million ongoing claims filed. ADP reported 692,000 private-sector jobs added in June; The federal Non-Farm payrolls report posted 850,000 public and private-sector jobs added as compared to 583,000 jobs added in May. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 5.90 percent in June from May’s reading of 5.80 percent unemployed.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the minutes from the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee and the Labor Department’s report on job openings. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 28, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 28, 2021Last week’s economic reports included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes.  Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

New Home Sales Fall in May

New home sales dropped to their lowest reading in a year in May with 769,000 new single-family homes sold on a  seasonally adjusted annual basis.  May’s reading was 5.90 percent lower than April’s reading of 817,000 sales but was 9.20 percent higher year-over-year.

May’s decline in new home sales was caused by a 14.50 percent decrease in sales in the South; Sales rose by 33 percent in the Northeast and 4.80 percent in the West. The sales pace for new homes in the Midwest was unchanged.

Multiple factors caused fewer new home sales during what is typically a busy home-buying season. Rising costs of lumber, along with high demand for homes and affordability challenges presented obstacles to first-time and moderate-income buyers in recent months, but lumber prices fell in May. High demand for homes created opportunities for cash buyers who sidestepped making purchase offers contingent on mortgage approvals.

Analysts said that falling lumber prices will eventually provide relief for homebuyers, but short inventories of available homes coupled with high home prices continued to sideline first-time and moderate-income buyers. The median price for new homes rose to $374,000 as compared to $369,000 in April. Real estate pros reported a 5.1 month supply of available homes in May, which was the highest reading in a year.

Existing Home Sales Lower in May as Market Slows

Sales of previously-owned homes also fell in May; this was likely due to low inventories of available homes and the covid induced home-buying frenzy easing. Would-be home buyers have also left the market due to affordability challenges.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® said: “Home sales fell moderately in May and are now approaching pre-pandemic activity.” Mr. Yun identified low inventories of available homes and affordability as the main obstacles facing prospective home buyers.

Mortgage Rates Rise; Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; average mortgage rates surpassed three percent for the first time in 10 weeks. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose nine basis points to 3.02 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 10 basis points to 2.34 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.53 percent and were one basis point higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell to 411,000 claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 418,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.39 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 3.53 million continuing claims filed. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, and reports on pending home sales, construction spending, and consumer confidence. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 21, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 21, 2021Last week’s economic news included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets and  Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Home Builder Sentiment Slips Amid High Materials Prices, Labor Shortages

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell two points to a May index reading of 81. Readings above 50 indicate that most home builders are confident in market conditions, but builder sentiment has fallen from its peak reading of 90 before the pandemic. The NAHB Housing Market reached its lowest reading of 37 during the pandemic. Readings above 50 indicate that most builders surveyed were confident about housing market conditions.

Homebuilder confidence slipped due to higher home prices caused by high demand for homes. Builders have pulled back the pace of building homes due to rising lumber prices and potential buyers facing affordability concerns. While lumber prices remain high compared to pre-pandemic levels, they were 42 percent lower year-over-year.

Chuck Fowke, chairman of the NAHB, said, “These higher prices have priced new homes beyond the budget of prospective buyers,  which has slowed the strong pace of home building.” Low mortgage rates prompt buyers to enter the market, but home prices in many areas require mortgage loans that many buyers cannot afford.

Homebuilders continued to face shortages of skilled carpenters and other workers. These shortages also impact the price of homes and building pace. Shortages of new and pre-owned homes created high levels of buyer competition with multiple offers on available homes. In addition, some metro areas are seeing more cash offers, which make buying homes more difficult for buyers who depend on mortgages to purchase homes.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported 1.57 million housing starts in May on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.52 million starts were reported in April and 1.63 million starts were expected in May. Building permits issued in May fell to 1.63 million permits issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. 1.73 million building permits were issued in April and analysts expected the same number of permits to be issued in May.

Mortgage Rates Fall; Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week with rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaging 2.93 percent and three basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages were one basis point higher on average at 2.24 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were three basis points lower on average at 2.52 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Jobless claims were mixed last week as new jobless claims rose to 412,000 first-time claims filed from the previous week’s reading of 375,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 3.52 million claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, inflation, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

FOMC Statement: Fed Predicts 2 Interest Rate Hikes in 2023

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FOMC Statement: Fed Predicts 2 Interest Rate Hikes in 2023The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve said in its post-meeting statement that the Federal Reserve expects to raise its benchmark interest rate range twice during 2023. No rate changes will be made during 2022 as the economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fed’s current interest rate range is 0.00 to 0.25 percent.

Fed Expects “Transitory” Inflation

The Fed’s post-meeting FOMC statement said that although Committee members adjusted their forecast for raising the Fed’s benchmark interest rate range, members did not predict long-term inflation and described current upward inflation as “transitory.”

The Consumer Price Index reported that the cost of living jumped in May and drove inflationary growth to a 13-year high of five percent.

11 of 18 FOMC members currently expect two or more rate hikes in 2023; in March, seven members expected one rate hike in 2023. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said that the Fed needs to reconsider its monetary policies based on the two stimulus payments provided to Americans. The Fed has held its benchmark interest rate range to 0.00 to 0.25 percent and continued its monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasurys and $40 billion in Mortgage-Backed Securities in efforts to support the economy and stabilize financial markets.

The Committee will follow economic news and developments through readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation, and financial and global news to determine monetary policy adjustments.

Fed Chair Suggests Future Tapering of Bond Purchases

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-FOMC meeting press conference that members had their first discussion of tapering the Fed’s bond purchases. Although the Fed has indicated it wants to see “substantial further progress” in the economy before it starts to taper its bond purchases, analysts expected further discussion of tapering bond purchases in FOMC’s July meeting. Reducing bond purchases is considered the first step in moderating the Fed’s accommodative stance on monetary policy.

Chair Powell said that the FOMC will continue to develop monetary policy in consideration of the FOMC’s dual mandate of achieving maximum and an annual inflation rate of two percent over the longer term. Inflation has run below two percent for some time before the pandemic; so a current inflation rate running above two percent would help raise the average inflation rate to the two percent requirement.  

The unemployment rate is improving as businesses and other employers open their doors and restore service to full capacity. Chair Powell cautioned that the economy remains strongly connected to how the Covid-19 virus progresses and said that monetary policy would be adjusted according to how the pandemic impacts the economy.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 14, 2021

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Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Job Openings Increase as Employers Struggle to Fill Positions

Job openings rose in April according to the Labor Department, but workers were quitting jobs in record numbers. 9.30 million openings were reported as compared to expectations of 8.20 million job openings and 8.30 million job openings reported in March. Increasing job openings indicate a stronger post-pandemic economy as businesses and service providers return to full capacity. 

Employers faced multiple obstacles to filling job openings including early retirements taken during the pandemic, difficulty in finding childcare options, and continued fear of covid-19. Generous covid-19 benefits and jobless benefits delayed workers’ return to their jobs. Job openings in restaurants and hotels rose by 349,000 openings in April. About one-third of all job openings were unfilled in April. 

In other news, the Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, rose by 0.60 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 0.80 percent growth. Analysts expected a reading of 0.50 percent for May. May’s reading was the fourth consecutive monthly increase in inflation since the pandemic. Higher used-car prices accounted for approximately a third of May’s inflation growth. 

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 14, 2021The Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.70 percent in May and was 3.80 percent higher year-over-year for a 29-year high.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell three basis points to 2.96 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 2.23 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.55 percent and were nine basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. 

Initial jobless claims fell last week with 376,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 370,000 new claims and the previous week’s reading of 385,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims also fell with 3.50 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.76 million continuing claims filed.

The University of Michigan released initial results for its June Consumer Sentiment Index. June’s index reading was 86.4 as compared to the expected reading of 84.4 and May’s index reading of 82.9. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic readings include the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing Market Index along with Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will release its usual post-meeting statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – June 7, 2021

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - June 7, 2021Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and public and private-sector employment data. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Census Bureau Reports Construction Sending Up by 9.8 Percent Year-Over-Year

Construction spending rose by nearly 10 percent year-over-year in April. Overall construction spending rose by $1.542 billion on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Construction spending rose by 0.20 percent in April, which fell short of the expected 0.50 percent reading, and was lower than the March reading of 1.0 percent growth in construction spending.

Residential construction spending increased by one percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.60 percent. Spending on single-family construction rose by 1.30 percent in April as compared to the March reading of 2.20 percent. Rapidly rising construction costs were fueled by higher lumber costs, but builders said that increasing costs for steel, copper, and plastic also drove higher spending. Builders expect supply chain delays and rising prices to continue impacting all types of construction projects.

Mortgage Rates Inch Up, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week, but average rates remained below three percent. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 2.99 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged  2.27 percent and did not change from the previous week’s reading.  The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was five basis points higher at 2.64 percent. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 385,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 405,000 initial claims filed. Continuing claims rose to 3.77 million claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 3.60 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Jobs Increase as Unemployment Rate Falls

The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 559,000 public and private-sector jobs added in May; ADP reported 978,000 private-sector jobs added in May as compared to April’s reading of 654,000  private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 5.80 percent in May as compared to April’s reading of 6.10 percent and an expected reading of 5.90 percent. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.