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NAHB: Home Builder Confidence in Housing Markets Slips in December

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NAHB: Home Builder Confidence in Housing Markets Slips in DecemberDecember’s National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index reported slipping builder confidence in U.S. housing markets. The Housing Market Index readings fell every month in 2022. Recently rising mortgage rates, materials costs, and inclement winter weather contributed to builder skepticism about current housing market conditions.

December’s National  Housing Market Index reading of 31 was the lowest since mid-2012 not including readings published during the pandemic. By comparison, the Housing Market Index reading for December 2021 was 84. The three indices comprising the Housing Market Index reported mixed readings in December. Current home sales decreased by three points and home builder expectations for home sales in the next six months increased by four points. Builder expectations of buyer traffic in new housing developments were unchanged from November’s reading.

Regional housing market indices reported mixed index readings, which are seasonally adjusted. The Northeast region reported an index reading of 32 for December, which was unchanged from November. The Midwestern region had an index reading of 30 for December, which was five points lower than November’s reading. The South reported an index reading of 35, which was two points higher than in November. The West reported an index reading of 25 for December, which was three points lower than in November.

Mortgage rates recently fell below seven percent and the pace of home price growth is slowing. High home prices and rapidly rising mortgage rates led more than 60 percent of home builders to offer a variety of buyer incentives including mortgage rate buydowns and paying discount points charged to home buyers for lower mortgage rates.

Building affordable homes: The struggle is real

NAHB home builders expect weaker housing market conditions to continue through 2023 with full recovery starting in 2024. NAHB estimates that there is a shortage of 1.5 million new homes based on buyer demand and homes currently available. Jerry Konter, the chair of NAHB, said that home builders are struggling to keep housing affordable. Construction costs rose by 30 percent since the start of 2022 and there is little room for home builders to cut home prices.

Slower home price growth and lower mortgage rates will help prospective home buyers qualify for mortgages and encourage more buyers to enter the housing market.  

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 19, 2202

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 19, 2202Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.  Fed Chair Jerome  Powell held his scheduled post-meeting press conference and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Federal Reserve Raises Target Interest Rate Range

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee announced its decision to raise the Fed’s target interest rate range to 4.25 to 4.50 percent from its previous range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks made during his scheduled press conference, “We’re going into next year with higher inflation than we thought.” Seven Fed officials predicted rising interest rates with the Fed’s interest rate range potentially reaching 5.75 percent. Analysts said that the Fed’s position of controlling inflation at any cost could result in a recession. Chair Powell said it was impossible to predict if a recession would occur and how deep it might go and how long it could last. He repeated the Fed’s commitment to controlling high inflation.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims  Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by two basis points to 6.31 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by 13 basis points to 5.54 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 211,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 231,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were reported as unchanged from the prior week with 167,000 ongoing unemployment claims filed.

The Commerce Department reported lower retail sales in November than in October. Retail sales decreased by -0.6 percent in November, which surpassed analysts’ estimates of -0.3 percent. Lower retail sales could suggest an impending recession as consumers hold back on paying rapidly rising prices for non-essential goods and services.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on U.S. housing markets and Commerce Department data on building permits issued and housing starts. Reports on sales of new and previously-owned homes and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 12, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 12, 2022Last week’s scheduled economic reports included preliminary monthly readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

University of Michigan Reports Slower Inflationary Growth

The University of Michigan predicted lower inflationary growth as December’s year-over-year reading for inflation fell to 4.6 percent from November’s year-over-year reading of 4.9 percent. This was the lowest inflation reading since September 2021. Analysts credited lower gasoline prices for slowing rapid inflation rates seen in recent months.

Falling gas prices also contributed to higher consumer sentiment levels reported in December’s edition of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 59.1 in December as compared to November’s reading of 56.8 and analysts’ expected reading of 56.5.

Component readings for current consumer sentiment data included consumer sentiment regarding current economic conditions and consumer views about economic conditions within the next six months. December’s index reading for consumer views of current economic conditions rose to 60.2  from November’s index reading of 58.8. The index reading for consumer views of economic conditions within the next six months rose to 58.4 from November’s reading of 55.6.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 16 basis points to 6.33 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by nine basis points to 5.67 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 230,000 claims from the previous week’s reading of 225,000 initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims also increased last week with 1.67 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.61 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic events include reports on inflation, the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the FOMC statement.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 5, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 5, 2022Last week’s economic news included readings on home prices, inflation, and data on public and private-sector jobs. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Posts Lower Home Prices in September

September home prices fell in all cities tracked by Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices were – 8.7 percent lower year-over-year in September than August’s reading of -10.40 percent. Home price declines showed signs of increasing after a period of rapidly rising home prices sidelined would-be home buyers.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index rose by 0.90 percent in September as compared to home price depreciation of -7.50 percent posted in August. Home prices rose in all 50 states and the District of Columbia between Q3 2021 and Q3 2022. States with the highest year-over-year home price growth were Florida with 22.7 percent home price growth, South Carolina with 18.4 percent home price growth, and Tennessee, where home prices rose by 17.9 percent growth. North Carolina experienced 17.4  percent growth in home prices and Georgia completed the top 5 states with the highest home price growth with 16.7 percent home price growth.

Home prices decreased in two metro areas in California; the San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City metro area posted a -4.3 percent decrease in home prices and the Oakland-Berkeley-Livermore metro area where home prices decreased by -0.60 percent.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased by nine basis points to 6.49 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 14 basis points to 5.76 percent.

225,000 new jobless claims were filed last week as compared to an expected reading of 235,000 first-time claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 241,000 new jobless claims filed. 1.61 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 1.55 million ongoing claims filed in the previous week.

The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for November showed 263,000 public and private-sector jobs added in November; analysts expected 200,000 jobs added based on October’s reading of 284,000 jobs added. ADP reported 127,000 private-sector jobs added in November as compared to analysts’ expectations of 190,000 private–sector jobs added and September’s reading of  239,000 private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate was unchanged from the previous week at 3.7 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and consumer expectations for inflation in the next five years. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 28, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 28, 2022

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on new home sales and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published. No economic data was published Thursday or Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

New Home Sales Surpass Expectations in October

The Commerce Department reported higher-than-expected sales of new homes during October. New homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 632,000 homes sold.  Analysts expected new homes to sell at an annual pace of 570,000 sales as compared to the revised annual pace of 588,000 new home sales in September. The supply of available new homes rose by 1.50 percent between September and October and approached a nine-month supply of new homes for sale. Rising mortgage rates affected affordability for first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but average mortgage rates fell last week.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 6.58 percent and the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by eight basis points to 5.90 percent. Homebuilders reported rising costs and slowing home sales; some builders added or increased buyer incentives including mortgage rate buydowns and paying buyers’ closing costs.

Last week’s first-time jobless claims were higher than expected with 240,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 225,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s reading of  223,000 new jobless claims filed.

Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 56.8 in November according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. November’s reading reflected consumer concerns about inflation and a potential recession and was markedly lower than October’s index reading of 59.9 and the October 2021 reading of 73.6. Consumer sentiment about economic conditions in the next six months was also lower at an index reading of  55.6. Readings over 50 indicate that most consumers have a positive view of economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on home prices, pending home sales, and inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 21, 2022

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What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 21, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on U.S housing markets, housing starts, and building permits issued. Data on sales of previously-owned homes were released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Builder Sentiment on Housing Markets Declines in November

November’s National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell five points to an index reading of 33; analysts expected a reading of 36. November’s reading was the lowest since June 2012 except during the pandemic.

All three indices contributing to the Housing Market Index were lower in November than in October. Homebuilder sentiment regarding current sales conditions fell six points to an index reading of 39; by comparison, this reading was 83 in November 2021. Builder confidence in home sales conditions over the next six months fell four points to 31. Homebuilder confidence in prospective buyer traffic in new single-family developments fell five points to an index reading of 20.

Homebuilders were less confident about housing market conditions in the four regions tracked by the NAHB. Builder sentiment in the Northeast fell six points to an index reading of 41. Builder sentiment in the Midwest fell two points to 38. Builder confidence in the South fell seven points to 42. Builder sentiment was five points lower in the West at 29. Index readings of less than 50 indicate that most builders lack confidence in housing market conditions.

Builders continue to experience rising materials costs and regulatory expenses associated with developing land and home construction. Rising home prices and resulting affordability concerns compelled builders to ask lawmakers to reduce regulatory costs connected with developing land and building homes.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac changed the format of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey to include only average rates for 30 and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and the survey no longer reports average discount points. The average rate for 30-year mortgages fell 47 basis points to 6.61 percent. Rates for 15-year mortgages averaged 5.98 percent and four basis points lower than in the previous week. 222,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week. Analysts expected 225,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 226,000 first-time claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new home sales, minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Financial markets will be closed on Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday.