The inflation data for CPI and the PCE Index was intended to be released this upcoming week, but it has been delayed until the following week. Given that, the most important data for this week was the Jobs Report, which includes important figures such as the amount of job growth and wage gains in proportion to inflation.
This release has shown a rather dismal result in job growth, showing near-zero job gains—a major reduction compared to the previous two years during the same period. This is also followed by wage gains that have lagged behind inflation for a long time. This could spell significant issues when considering tariffs and inflation.
This will put a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve regarding whether to continue cutting rates in light of the more recent data releases.
Jobs Report
The U.S. labor market shrunk by 92,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), well below economist estimates of an addition of 55,000. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% while average hourly wages grew by 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.
Retail Sales
Sales at U.S. retailers fell in January for the first time in three months as Winter Storm Fern depressed spending at car dealers, gas stations and brick-and-mortar stores. Retail sales slid 0.2% in the first month of the year, the government said Friday. The report had been delayed by recent lapses in federal funding.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01%, with the current rate at 5.43%
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, with the current rate at 6.00%
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.72%
- 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.10%, with current rates at 5.74%
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 213,000 compared to the expected claims of 215,000. The prior week landed at 213,000.
What’s Ahead
Next week, the delayed CPI and PCE data is scheduled to be released, along with a rate decision by the Federal Reserve. This is an unusual combination, as inflation data has typically been released prior to the rate decision.