Inflation has shown signs of easing for the first time since the early days of the COVID pandemic. However, inflation remains higher than anticipated. Both the PPI and CPI data releases came in lower than expected, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be beginning to moderate. This is based on the newer, more theoretical reporting for the PPI and CPI.

It is unlikely this will cause any significant change in stance by the Federal Reserve, as it still prefers the PCE Index as its preferred inflation indicator. In addition, prices remain elevated for the average consumer, creating pressure across many sectors. With the Fed’s rate decision next week, we are unlikely to see any changes.

Producer Price Index
Wholesale prices fell in June for the first time in 10 months, largely due to lower gas prices, but it is unclear whether the recent slowdown in inflation will persist in light of renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran. The producer-price index dropped 0.3% in June, the government said Wednesday, following a similar decline in the prices consumers paid.

Consumer Price Index
The cost of living fell in June for the first time in six years thanks to plunging gas prices, but the U.S.’s battle against high inflation is far from over. The consumer-price index sank 0.4% last month to mark the first drop since May 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic was in its early months and raging globally. The CPI decline was twice as large as Wall Street had forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.11%, bringing the current rate to 5.93%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, bringing the current rate to 6.55%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 6.25%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with current rate at 6.26%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 208,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The previous week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The FOMC rate decision, the PCE Index, GDP data, and the Consumer Sentiment report.

The Trade Balance has offered little new insight, as it has largely returned to levels seen prior to the earlier period of unstable tariff policies. Consumer Credit had been trending upward nearly every month; however, this latest report breaks that pattern by showing a decline in consumer credit usage. Meanwhile, the Fed’s Minutes revealed nothing particularly substantial, instead reflecting a dovish stance and a willingness to maintain current interest rates for the foreseeable future.

Consumer Credit
Total US consumer credit fell by $0.18 billion in May 2026, following an upwardly revised $20.82 billion increase in April and missing market expectations for a $17.1 billion gain. Revolving credit, which includes credit card debt, declined to $1.34 trillion from $1.35 trillion, pointing to weaker short-term consumer borrowing. Meanwhile, non-revolving credit, which includes auto and student loans, increased to $3.81 trillion from $3.80 trillion. Overall consumer credit was unchanged on an annualized, seasonally adjusted basis, as revolving credit contracted at a 4.7% annual rate while non-revolving credit grew at a 1.6% pace.

U.S. Trade Balance
The US trade deficit widened sharply to $77.6 billion in May 2026 from a revised $54.6 billion in April, broadly in line with market expectations of a $78.5 billion shortfall. The gap was the largest since March 2025, as imports climbed 3.3% to $395.3 billion, their highest level in more than a year. The increase was driven primarily by higher purchases of consumer goods, particularly pharmaceutical preparations and cell phones, as well as crude oil and passenger cars. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 5.82%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06%, bringing the current rate to 6.49%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 6.21%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.04%, with current rate at 6.23%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 218,000. The previous landed at 217,000.

What’s Ahead
Next week brings the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reports. Although inflation remains an important indicator, these reports are not expected to significantly alter the Federal Reserve’s current stance on interest rates.

Unemployment data has shown some rather interesting statistics, with the lowest unemployment rates in the last 14 months being reported. Looking closer at the statistics shows that the unemployment rate hasn’t just dropped due to more people finding work, but also because a significant number of people have stopped looking for work, causing the numbers to appear more favorable.

Among analysts, this is a pretty standout example, and currently, the Federal Reserve has made no indication that it plans to change its policies on interest rates, with many members of the board still favoring increasing rates again. Hourly wages have also seen a modest increase, but this growth has been overshadowed by the increase in inflation for quite some time.

Unemployment Report
The unemployment rate fell in June to a 14-month low of 4.2%. Good news, right? Yes and no. The biggest reason the jobless rate fell is that 720,000 people dropped out of the labor force. This is usually a bad sign, as it means people are too discouraged to look for work.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.6 point to 91.2 in June, a figure that is still below its year-ago reading of 95.2. Consumer attitudes worsened after the Iran war caused oil and gas prices to spike, accelerating inflation and causing Americans’ inflation-adjusted incomes to decline. Before the pandemic, the index regularly topped 120.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.79%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, bringing the current rate to 6.43%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rate at 6.17%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.07%, with current rate at 6.19%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The previous week landed at 216,000.

What’s Ahead
A very light week lies ahead, with key economic updates including the U.S. Trade Balance and Consumer Credit reports, along with the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Minutes.

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, has been released. The report indicates that inflation remains elevated across most sectors, although the overall reading came in slightly below expectations.

However, this encouraging development has been tempered by a decline in consumer sentiment, which has fallen for the fourth consecutive month. Much of the pessimism has been attributed to concerns surrounding the conflict in Iran and rising fuel costs.

Despite inflation coming in below forecasts, some members of the Federal Reserve have continued to discuss the possibility of raising interest rates further in an effort to keep inflation under control.

PCE Index
The core personal consumption expenditures price index showed a 3.4% annual rate after rising 0.3% for the month. The core annual reading was the highest since October 2023. The Fed’s primary inflation gauge also showed an annual rate of 4.1%, the highest since April 2023.

Consumer Sentinment
Consumer sentiment has tumbled to a fresh record low in May as fears of higher prices grow due to the U.S.-Iran war and elevated oil prices, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 5.84%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.02%, bringing the current rate to 6.49%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with current rate at 6.07%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.08%, with current rate at 6.09%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 215,000 compared to the expected claims of 223,000. The previous week landed at 227,000.

What’s Ahead
Key releases to watch next week include the U.S. Employment Report, U.S. wage data, and the Consumer Confidence report.

The week was relatively light following the release of the prior inflation data and the FOMC rate decision. The Federal Reserve decided to keep its overnight borrowing rate unchanged and has indicated no plans to make changes in the near term.

Many members of the Federal Reserve Board continue to watch economic conditions closely, as inflation remains elevated across many sectors and could warrant further policy action if price pressures persist.

FOMC Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate anchored in a range of 3.5%-3.75%. The federal funds rate has held there since the central bank lowered rates by three-quarters of a percentage point in the latter part of 2025. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04%, bringing the current rate to 5.81%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.05%, bringing the current rate to 6.47%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with current rate at 6.15%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw an increase of 0.03%, with current rate at 6.17%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 226,000 compared to the expected claims of 225,000. The previous week landed at 230,000.

What’s Ahead
PCE Index inflation data, personal income and spending, and consumer sentiment are headlining next week’s release data.

With the inflation reports showing their cards, the Consumer Price Index has shown to be in line with expectations, but unexpectedly the Producer Price Index has come in substantially higher than expected.

This may indicate that future core cost increases are headed for consumers, as rising costs are passed through producers and businesses down to the customer level.

This is somewhat offset by Consumer Sentiment having risen, breaking a three-month downward trend. Largely due to the deal with Iran that took place this weekend, there appears to be considerable optimism that fuel prices will return to previous norms. This makes it very unlikely that the Federal Reserve will adjust rates either up or down in the coming week.

Consumer Price Index
The consumer price index rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.5% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 4.2%, both in line with expectations. The core CPI accelerated 0.2% for the month and 2.9% from a year ago. While the annual rate was in line with the forecast, the monthly gain was below the 0.3% estimate.

Producer Price Index
The producer price index increased a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in May, putting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate at 6.5%, the highest since November 2022. Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PPI accelerated 0.4%, compared with the consensus view of 0.5%, indicating that rising fuel prices are causing much of the inflationary burden. 

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.05%, bringing the current rate to 5.84%.
• 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04%, bringing the current rate to 6.52%.

MND Rate Index

• 30-Year FHA rates saw a -0.04% decrease, with current rate at 6.14%.
• 30-Year VA rates saw a -0.03% decrease, with current rate at 6.16%.

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 229,000 compared to the expected claims of 220,000. The previous week landed at 225,000.

What’s Ahead
A lighter release week ahead, with only the Federal Reserve Rate Decision on the horizon.