With the ongoing government shutdown, other major releases have hit a snag, as there is still very limited information for when the shutdown may end. The largest and most impactful releases continuing to move forward are those from third-party sources still publishing data — such as the Consumer Sentiment reports — which show that consumers remain concerned about inflation but have recently grown more optimistic about the labor market.

As expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by another 25 basis points. However, Chairman Jerome Powell remains skeptical that another rate cut will occur anytime soon.

Consumer Sentiment
Consumers were more optimistic about the labor market outlook in October, according to a new survey from the Conference Board released Tuesday. The survey’s so-called labor-market differential — which measures the gap between the percentage of consumers who say jobs are “plentiful” and those who say jobs are “hard to get” — rose to 9.4 in October from 8.7 in the prior month.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 5.41%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 6.17%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
U.S. employment data, if released next week, are likely to be the most significant reports to watch.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend.

Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the latest data now available, there is a lot of optimism that there will be further rate cuts upcoming.

Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. economy sped up in October during the ongoing government shutdown, new surveys show, but high tariffs were hurting exports, businesses said, casting a cloud over the upcoming year. S&P Global said its index of service companies, which employ most Americans, rose to a three-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.2 in the prior month. Any number above 50 signals expansion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Next week’s tentative releases include the FOMC rate decision and the PCE Index, though the PCE report has been delayed by the government shutdown.

While the government shutdown remains ongoing, inflation data for both the CPI and PPI has been released, indicating that inflation came in below expectations.

It’s worth noting that under the new policy, more data will be simulated rather than collected from broader sources, there is still a significant degree of data collection. This was followed by the Consumer Sentiment report, which suggests that the economy may be gaining momentum again, as sentiment has risen and broken its recent downtrend.

Although many reports are still delayed due to the government shutdown, some essential releases have started to be prioritized. With the latest data now available, there is a lot of optimism that there will be further rate cuts upcoming.

Consumer Sentiment
The U.S. economy sped up in October during the ongoing government shutdown, new surveys show, but high tariffs were hurting exports, businesses said, casting a cloud over the upcoming year. S&P Global said its index of service companies, which employ most Americans, rose to a three-month high of 55.2 in October from 54.2 in the prior month. Any number above 50 signals expansion.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 5.44%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.08% for this week, with the current rate at 6.19%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.95%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.97%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
Next week’s tentative releases include the FOMC rate decision and the PCE Index, though the PCE report has been delayed by the government shutdown.

The government has been facing a shutdown for the past 19 days with continued obstinacy from both parties, largely over healthcare subsidies.

As a result, there will be few major reports this week, the most notable being the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which indicates that the U.S. economy is once again showing signs of slowing.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell also provided comments on the current inflation outlook, noting that multiple private and public data sources show inflation remains largely within projections. He added that the Fed will maintain its current monetary policy stance despite the ongoing government shutdow. There is still another planned rate cut potentially this year.

Federal Reserve Beige Book
Reports from across the U.S. indicate sluggish economic conditions in much of the country, with only three of the Federal Reserve’s 12 district banks reporting expanding activity in their regions, according to the Federal Reverse’s latest “beige book” report. The remaining nine districts reported either flat or contracting economic activity.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week, with the current rate at 5.52%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week, with the current rate at 6.27%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week. Current rates at 5.99%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.03% for this week. Current rates at 6.01%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
There are some expectations that the shutdown could end next week, and the CPI and PPI reports (key inflation reports) may potentially be on the horizon.

Due to the government shutdown, nearly all reports will be delayed aside from a few third party reports. The Consumer Sentiment report has been released on time and shows that consumers are still frustrated with the economy and increasingly high inflation. It is unknown when the government shutdown will end and when we will be seeing reports released again in a timely fashion. Interest rates will still be continued to be adjusted amidst the government shutdown.

Consumer Sentiment
Americans have soured on the prospect of finding new jobs, a new survey shows. They are also still frustrated by persistent inflation, giving them little confidence that the economy will improve soon. The first reading of the consumer sentiment survey in October was basically flat at 55.0, the University of Michigan said Friday. The index has been hovering at levels that are typically experienced during recessions.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.02% for this week, with the current rate at 5.53%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.30%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw no change for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.01% for this week. Current rates at 6.04%

Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be delayed until further notice.

What’s Ahead
The CPI and PPI — key inflation reports — are tentatively scheduled to be released.

The release of key Unemployment Data was delayed last week due to administrative changes in how jobless figures are tracked. The Consumer Confidence report reflects these policy adjustments, showing growing concerns about the job market and a larger-than-expected decline in confidence for September.

Lastly, with tariff disruptions continuing to affect the manufacturing sector, the Global US Manufacturing data has revealed that production has slowed overall since the initial disruptions.

Manufacturing PMI
The latest survey showed a weaker gain in production, whilst new order book growth softened as tariffs continued to weigh on exports. Tariffs and broader policy uncertainty also dampened firms’ assessment of the business outlook, but expectations of manufacturing production reshoring and hopes of better demand in the year ahead meant sentiment remained positive overall.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence fell sharply in September on growing worries about the labor market. The consumer-confidence index dropped to 94.2 in September from a revised 97.8 in the prior month, the Conference Board said Tuesday. This is the lowest level since April.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
• 15-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.06% for this week, with the current rate at 5.55%
• 30-Yr FRM rates saw an increase of 0.04% for this week, with the current rate at 6.34%

MND Rate Index
• 30-Yr FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06% for this week. Current rates at 6.03%
• 30-Yr VA rates saw a decrease of -0.05% for this week. Current rates at 6.05%

Jobless Claims
The unemployment data has been delayed, but expected claims are 222,000. The prior week landed at 218,000.

What’s Ahead
The key releases next week will include major inflation reports — the CPI and PPI — along with the delayed Unemployment Data report. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will also be a notable release.