
While unemployment rates have fallen to their lowest levels since 2025, they have not fallen for the right reasons. Many people who have dropped out of the labor force have also stopped looking for work, which can skew the unemployment numbers. This has been followed by a smaller-than-expected increase in hourly pay, which has continued to lag behind inflation, especially in the current environment.
This weakness has also been reflected in a reduction in overall payrolls, indicating an overall decline in employment. As a result, these labor market conditions could make the Federal Reserve more hesitant to raise rates.
U.S. Employment Rate
The U.S. unemployment rate fell for the second month in a row, to 4.1%, a level it last reached in June 2025. Ordinarily that would be good news. This time it wasn’t. The unemployment rate declined because 264,000 people dropped out of the labor force. In other words, they stopped looking for work.
Payroll
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a gain of 80,000 positions, an improvement from June’s revised addition of 20,000 jobs. Those predictions were dashed as leisure and hospitality dropped 40,000 roles as the World Cup wound down and local government positions fell by 57,000. Retailers also axed jobs.
Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index
- 15-Year FRM rates saw a decrease of -0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.01%.
- 30-Year FRM rates saw an increase of 0.03%, bringing the current rate to 6.69%.
MND Rate Index
- 30-Year FHA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rate at 6.28%.
- 30-Year VA rates saw a decrease of -0.06%, with current rate at 6.30%.
Jobless Claims
Initial Claims were reported to be 199,000 compared to the expected claims of 204,000. The previous week landed at 198,000.
What’s Ahead
CPI and PPI inflation data will be released this week, while Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales reports will provide a clearer picture of the overall economic outlook.
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions you will ever make, and while it is easy to focus on your current needs, it is equally important to think about the years ahead. The home that fits your lifestyle today should also have the flexibility to support your future goals. Looking beyond your immediate needs can help you make a decision you will feel confident about for years to come.
Many homebuyers are attracted to neighborhoods with well-maintained landscaping, community amenities, and a consistent appearance. These neighborhoods are often governed by a Homeowners Association, commonly known as an HOA. Before purchasing a home in one of these communities, it is important to understand how an HOA operates and how it may affect your daily life and monthly budget.
Many people believe they should wait until they are ready to make an offer before touring homes. In reality, visiting properties early in the process can be one of the smartest decisions a future buyer makes. Touring homes helps you understand the local market, refine your priorities, and gain confidence long before it is time to purchase.
Buying a home is about more than comparing square footage, counting bedrooms, or checking items off a wish list. While those details certainly matter, many buyers discover there is another factor that cannot always be measured on paper. Sometimes a home simply feels right. 